Why TCBK Stock advanced +0.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$53.48 +0.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.46

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.71B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.46 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 239.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$65 Bull$55 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE TCBK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCBK SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 239.4% FCF Margin ($127.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$51.41+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$52.04+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$52.72+1.4% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$53.48+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, TCBK faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($52.85) or 200D SMA ($51.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($55.16) toward Bear Floor ($43.02).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TCBK Stock advanced +0.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) advanced +0.87% to $53.48, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($43.52 – $61.71). Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($43.52 – $61.71) with RSI-14 at 49 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4% around $53.48 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $127.9M annual free cash flow.
Live TCBK Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
TriCo (TCBK) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

While the top- and bottom-line numbers for TriCo (TCBK) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended September 2026, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street esti

MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
TriCo (TCBK) Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

TriCo (TCBK) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +9.26% and +2.54%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
TriCo: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

(AP) — TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings of $38 million.The bank, based in Chico, California, said it had earnings of $1.

MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Cathay General (CATY) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Cathay (CATY) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -0.69% and +11.58%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TCBK Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TCBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $53.67H $53.99L $52.26C $53.48VOL 209.0K
RES: $53.85SUP: $49.97SMA50: $52.85SMA200: $51.97
$62.77$58.39$54.01$49.63$45.25RES $53.85SUP $49.97$53.482026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBK)

Financials Rank #319 of 1096 ⚔️ HOPE vs TCBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBK vs. HOPE, QCRH, NBHC, BFC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) ranks #319 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #459 by equity capitalization ($1.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NBHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TCBK at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCBK ACTIVE
TriCo Bancshares
C 65/100 14.1x — 9.2% +0.87% $1.71B Benchmark Subject
HOPE
Hope Bancorp Inc.
D+ 56/100 28.0x — 2.7% -2.16% $1.73B /hope-vs-tcbk →
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 13.2x — 11.4% +1.37% $1.68B /qcrh-vs-tcbk →
NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
B 72/100 15.3x — 7.9% +0.21% $1.67B /nbhc-vs-tcbk →
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 55/100 23.4x — 11.1% +1.85% $1.67B /bfc-vs-tcbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000356171

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) reported GAAP revenue of $53.4M (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $51.3M , and +6.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $121.6M, operating cash flow of $133.3M, and free cash flow of $127.9M (+21.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBK closed FY2025 with $9.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.4M $121.6M $133.3M $127.9M $9.82B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $51.3M $114.9M $109.7M $105.2M $9.67B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.1M $117.4M $138.9M $138.9M — —

3. TCBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBK) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $53.48 (+0.87% 1D, market cap $1.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TCBK ranks #319 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCBK compare to HOPE and QCRH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TCBK carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, HOPE (Hope Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 28.0x, ROIC 2.7%, cap $1.73B) and QCRH (QCR Holdings Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $1.68B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBK?

Per TCBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000356171), TriCo Bancshares generated $53.4M in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $121.6M in net income, and $127.9M in free cash flow against $9.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCBK last traded at $53.48 (+0.87% on volume of 172,346 shares), positioning the stock +1.19% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.85) and +2.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($51.97). Across its 52-week range of $43.52 to $61.71, TCBK sits at the 54.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($51.34 to $55.62).

TCBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is TCBK stock moving today?

Why TCBK Stock advanced +0.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

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