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Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: Is SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.88 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $552.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #204 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $538.7M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $608.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?

Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is SOC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SOC last traded at $2.88 (-5.88% on volume of 4,806,463 shares), positioning the stock -27.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.99) and -67.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.84). Across its 52-week range of $2.63 to $19.25, SOC sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.52 to $3.24).

Q: What is SOC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SOC.

$2.88 -5.88% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $552.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84 (-1.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SOC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SOC SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (41% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.72-10.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.32-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.26-11.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.88-9.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SOC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SOC currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.99) and Max Pain ($3.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.21.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SOC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SOC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SOC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SOC.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SOC)

✓Walkthrough of SOC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SOC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $2.85H $2.89L $2.63C $2.88VOL 6.61M

RES: $5.45SUP: $2.80SMA50: $3.99SMA200: $8.84

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SOC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SOC Butterfly Map → + Track SOC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SOC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SOC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SOC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SOC)

Energy Rank #204 of 211 ⚔️ SD vs SOC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SOC vs. SD, WTI, EGY, GPRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) ranks #204 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #152 by equity capitalization ($552.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SD leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while SD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with SOC at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SOC ACTIVE Sable Offshore Corp.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.88%	$552.6M	Benchmark Subject
SD SandRidge Energy Inc.	C+	67/100	7.7x	—	12.0%	-1.22%	$538.7M	/sd-vs-soc →
WTI W&T Offshore Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.50%	$608.3M	/wti-vs-soc →
EGY VAALCO Energy Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-4.2%	-1.40%	$666.9M	/egy-vs-soc →
GPRK Geopark Ltd	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.64%	$702.2M	/gprk-vs-soc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831481

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$410.2M, operating cash flow of -$351.7M, and free cash flow of -$351.7M (-115.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SOC closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$410.2M	-$351.7M	-$351.7M	$1.74B	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$617.3M	-$163.0M	-$163.0M	$1.58B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$93.7M	-$70.1M	-$70.1M	—	—

3. SOC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.88 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $552.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #204 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $538.7M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $608.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?

Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SOC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SOC last traded at $2.88 (-5.88% on volume of 4,806,463 shares), positioning the stock -27.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.99) and -67.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.84). Across its 52-week range of $2.63 to $19.25, SOC sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.52 to $3.24).

SOC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SOC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SOC.

Direct Sub-Reports: SOC RQD Cockpit SOC 12M Forecast SOC Earnings & Move SOC Dividends & DRIP SOC Insiders & 13F SOC Whale Options SOC Profit Sankey SOC News & Why