MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
Why SOC Stock dropped -5.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.88 -5.88% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $552.6M
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SOC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.88 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $552.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #204 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $538.7M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $608.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?
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Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84 (-1.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SOC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SOC SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (41% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$3.72-10.8% Next Q
37
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$3.32-1.8% Next Q
34
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$3.26-11.7% Next Q
32
CurrentGrade E$2.88-9.8% Hist 90D α
29
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SOC Turnaround Squeeze
While SOC currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.99) and Max Pain ($3.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.21.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SOC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SOC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SOC Stock dropped -5.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) dropped -5.88% to $2.88, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.63 – $19.25). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.63 – $19.25) with RSI-14 at 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.88 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live SOC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SOC)
- ✓Walkthrough of SOC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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SOC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $2.85H $2.89L $2.63C $2.88VOL 6.61M
RES: $5.45SUP: $2.80SMA50: $3.99SMA200: $8.84
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SOC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SOC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SOC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SOC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SOC)
Energy Rank #204 of 211
⚔️ SD vs SOC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SOC vs. SD, WTI, EGY, GPRK)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) ranks #204 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #152 by equity capitalization ($552.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SD leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while SD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with SOC at 29/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOC
ACTIVE
Sable Offshore Corp. | E | 29/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -5.88% | $552.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| SD SandRidge Energy Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 7.7x | — | 12.0% | -1.22% | $538.7M | /sd-vs-soc → |
| WTI W&T Offshore Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.50% | $608.3M | /wti-vs-soc → |
| EGY VAALCO Energy Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -4.2% | -1.40% | $666.9M | /egy-vs-soc → |
| GPRK Geopark Ltd | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -1.64% | $702.2M | /gprk-vs-soc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831481In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$410.2M, operating cash flow of -$351.7M, and free cash flow of -$351.7M (-115.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SOC closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$410.2M | -$351.7M | -$351.7M | $1.74B | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$617.3M | -$163.0M | -$163.0M | $1.58B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$93.7M | -$70.1M | -$70.1M | — | — |
3. SOC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.88 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $552.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #204 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $538.7M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $608.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?
Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $0 in revenue, -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SOC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SOC last traded at $2.88 (-5.88% on volume of 4,806,463 shares), positioning the stock -27.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.99) and -67.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.84). Across its 52-week range of $2.63 to $19.25, SOC sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.52 to $3.24).
SOC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SOC stock moving today?
Why SOC Stock dropped -5.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.