Stock Ratings / Financials / SKWD / insiders

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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$58.51 +0.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.50

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.60B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.50 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 3251.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SKWD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SKWD SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3251.9% FCF Margin ($402.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$58.32+5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$61.23-1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$60.39-3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$58.51+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SKWD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, SKWD faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($57.58) or 200D SMA ($51.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($61.14) toward Bear Floor ($47.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SKWD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SKWD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

SKWD Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (SKWD)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on SKWD. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SKWD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SKWD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.73%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $59.79H $59.79L $58.26C $58.51VOL 258.4K

RES: $62.11SUP: $51.38SMA50: $57.58SMA200: $51.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SKWD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SKWD Butterfly Map → + Track SKWD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SKWD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SKWD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SKWD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SKWD)

Financials Rank #224 of 1096 ⚔️ HCI vs SKWD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SKWD vs. HCI, HG, PLGO, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) ranks #224 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #388 by equity capitalization ($2.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPNT leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with SKWD at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SKWD ACTIVE Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	16.8%	+0.95%	$2.60B	Benchmark Subject
HCI HCI Group Inc.	B+	76/100	7.7x	—	30.8%	+1.53%	$2.47B	/hci-vs-skwd →
HG Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-0.72%	$2.86B	/hg-vs-skwd →
PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	/plgo-vs-skwd →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	64/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-skwd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001519449

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) reported GAAP revenue of $12.4M (+16.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.7M , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $170.0M, operating cash flow of $408.1M, and free cash flow of $402.6M (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SKWD closed FY2025 with $4.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.4M	$170.0M	$408.1M	$402.6M	$4.79B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$10.7M	$118.8M	$305.1M	$300.9M	$3.73B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.8M	$86.0M	$338.2M	$338.2M	—	—

3. SKWD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SKWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SKWD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $58.51 (+0.95% 1D, market cap $2.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SKWD ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SKWD compare to HCI and HG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SKWD carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, HCI (HCI Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 30.8%, cap $2.47B) and HG (Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPNT leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SKWD?

Per SKWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001519449), Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. generated $12.4M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), $170.0M in net income, and $402.6M in free cash flow against $4.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SKWD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SKWD last traded at $58.51 (+0.95% on volume of 289,442 shares), positioning the stock +1.62% above its 50-day simple moving average ($57.58) and +13.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($51.59). Across its 52-week range of $40.60 to $65.69, SKWD sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($55.35 to $61.67).

SKWD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are SKWD insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies SKWD leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: SKWD RQD Cockpit SKWD 12M Forecast SKWD Earnings & Move SKWD Dividends & DRIP SKWD Insiders & 13F SKWD Whale Options SKWD Profit Sankey SKWD News & Why