Stock Ratings / Financials / SKWD / financials

HCI (80) HG (52) PLGO (47) SPNT (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$58.51 +0.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.75

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $2.60B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SKWD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SKWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SKWD) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $58.51 (+0.95% 1D, market cap $2.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SKWD ranks #50 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SKWD compare to HCI and HG in the Financials sector?

▼

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SKWD carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, HCI (HCI Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 30.8%, cap $2.47B) and HG (Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPNT leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SKWD?

▼

Per SKWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001519449), Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. generated $12.4M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), $170.0M in net income, and $402.6M in free cash flow against $4.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.75 (+0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 3251.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SKWD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SKWD SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3251.9% FCF Margin ($402.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$59.88+1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A-$60.62-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$60.13-2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B$58.51+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (82) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SKWD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, SKWD faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($57.61) or 200D SMA ($51.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($62.72) toward Bear Floor ($47.98).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SKWD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SKWD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SKWD Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$402.6M (3251.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $9.8M

FY24

Rev $10.7M

FY25

Rev $12.4M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$12.4M	52%	0%	$170.0M	$402.6M	16.8%
FY 2024	$10.7M	52%	0%	$118.8M	$300.9M	16.8%
FY 2023	$9.8M	52%	0%	$86.0M	$338.2M	16.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SKWD)

✓Walkthrough of SKWD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SKWD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $57.96H $58.51L $57.96C $58.51VOL 289.4K

RES: $62.05SUP: $51.33SMA50: $57.61SMA200: $51.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SKWD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SKWD Butterfly Map → + Track SKWD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SKWD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SKWD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SKWD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SKWD)

Financials Rank #50 of 1096 ⚔️ HCI vs SKWD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SKWD vs. HCI, HG, PLGO, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) ranks #50 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #388 by equity capitalization ($2.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPNT leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with SKWD at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SKWD ACTIVE Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.	B	74/100	15.3x	—	16.8%	+0.95%	$2.60B	Benchmark Subject
HCI HCI Group Inc.	B+	80/100	7.7x	—	30.8%	+1.53%	$2.47B	/hci-vs-skwd →
HG Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.72%	$2.86B	/hg-vs-skwd →
PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	47/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	/plgo-vs-skwd →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	63/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-skwd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001519449

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD) reported GAAP revenue of $12.4M (+16.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.7M , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $170.0M, operating cash flow of $408.1M, and free cash flow of $402.6M (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SKWD closed FY2025 with $4.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.4M	$170.0M	$408.1M	$402.6M	$4.79B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$10.7M	$118.8M	$305.1M	$300.9M	$3.73B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.8M	$86.0M	$338.2M	$338.2M	—	—

3. SKWD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SKWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SKWD compare to HCI and HG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SKWD?

Where is SKWD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SKWD last traded at $58.51 (+0.95% on volume of 289,442 shares), positioning the stock +1.56% above its 50-day simple moving average ($57.61) and +13.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($51.65). Across its 52-week range of $40.60 to $65.69, SKWD sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($55.35 to $61.67).

SKWD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc. (SKWD)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SKWD converted $12.4M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $402.6M in free cash flow (3251.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SKWD RQD Cockpit SKWD 12M Forecast SKWD Earnings & Move SKWD Dividends & DRIP SKWD Insiders & 13F SKWD Whale Options SKWD Profit Sankey SKWD News & Why