Stock Ratings / Financials / SAFE / financials

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Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$11.34 +3.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.39

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $803.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.39 (+0.42%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 12.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SAFE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SAFE SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 26.2% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$12.00-5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$11.34-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.23+1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$11.34+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SAFE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, SAFE faces multiple-compression risk if 7.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.97) or 200D SMA ($14.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.75) toward Bear Floor ($9.17).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SAFE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SAFE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SAFE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$47.8M (12.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $352.6M

FY24

Rev $365.7M

FY25

Rev $385.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$385.6M	52%	26.2%	$114.5M	$47.8M	3.3%
FY 2024	$365.7M	52%	23.8%	$105.8M	$37.9M	2.9%
FY 2023	$352.6M	52%	-21.9%	-$55.0M	$15.4M	3.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SAFE)

✓Walkthrough of SAFE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SAFE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $11.44H $11.48L $11.12C $11.34VOL 918.1K

SUP: $10.28SMA50: $12.97SMA200: $14.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SAFE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SAFE Butterfly Map → + Track SAFE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SAFE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SAFE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SAFE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SAFE)

Financials Rank #289 of 1096 ⚔️ INN vs SAFE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SAFE vs. INN, ARI, SVC, CTO)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) ranks #289 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #604 by equity capitalization ($803.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ARI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SAFE ACTIVE Safehold Inc.	C+	66/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	+3.37%	$803.1M	Benchmark Subject
INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	6.3%	+0.97%	$784.1M	/inn-vs-safe →
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	C-	59/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-1.68%	$827.0M	/ari-vs-safe →
SVC Service Properties Trust of	D+	53/100	—	—	-31.3%	+1.75%	$830.2M	/svc-vs-safe →
CTO CTO Realty Growth Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	4.8%	+2.94%	$759.3M	/cto-vs-safe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001095651

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Safehold Inc. (SAFE) reported GAAP revenue of $385.6M (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $365.7M , and +9.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.5M, operating cash flow of $47.8M, and free cash flow of $47.8M (+26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, SAFE closed FY2025 with $7.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$385.6M	$114.5M	$47.8M	$47.8M	$7.25B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$365.7M	$105.8M	$37.9M	$37.9M	$6.90B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$352.6M	-$55.0M	$15.4M	$15.4M	—	—

3. SAFE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SAFE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $11.34 (+3.37% 1D, market cap $803.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SAFE ranks #289 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SAFE compare to INN and ARI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), SAFE carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.3%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $827.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFE?

Per SAFE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001095651), Safehold Inc. generated $385.6M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $114.5M in net income, and $47.8M in free cash flow against $7.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SAFE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SAFE last traded at $11.34 (+3.37% on volume of 1,033,529 shares), positioning the stock -12.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.97) and -22.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.70). Across its 52-week range of $10.61 to $17.45, SAFE sits at the 10.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($10.53 to $12.15).

SAFE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Safehold Inc. (SAFE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SAFE converted $385.6M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 26.2% operating margin, and $47.8M in free cash flow (12.4% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SAFE RQD Cockpit SAFE 12M Forecast SAFE Earnings & Move SAFE Dividends & DRIP SAFE Insiders & 13F SAFE Whale Options SAFE Profit Sankey SAFE News & Why