Stock Ratings / Financials / SAFE / dividends

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Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$11.30 -0.35% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.27

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $803.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SAFE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SAFE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $11.30 (-0.35% 1D, market cap $803.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SAFE ranks #648 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SAFE compare to INN and ARI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), SAFE carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.3%. By comparison, INN (Summit Hotel Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.3%, cap $784.1M) and ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $827.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFE?

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Per SAFE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001095651), Safehold Inc. generated $385.6M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $114.5M in net income, and $47.8M in free cash flow against $7.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.27 (-0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 12.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SAFE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SAFE SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.06-8.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$11.08+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$11.15+1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$11.30-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SAFE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SAFE currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.89) and Max Pain ($11.87) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SAFE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SAFE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

8.14% Total Yield

6.34% Cash ($0.72/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

68/100 • SAFE COVERAGE

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

69.3% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (11.6% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $29,967

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $2,439/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.2K

Yr 1

$12.5K

Yr 2

$13.9K

Yr 3

$15.5K

Yr 4

$17.3K

Yr 5

$19.3K

Yr 6

$21.6K

Yr 7

$24.1K

Yr 8

$26.9K

Yr 9

$30.0K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SAFE)

✓Walkthrough of SAFE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SAFE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $10.97H $11.34L $10.97C $11.30VOL 1.03M

RES: $20.11SUP: $10.23SMA50: $12.89SMA200: $14.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SAFE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SAFE Butterfly Map → + Track SAFE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SAFE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SAFE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SAFE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SAFE)

Financials Rank #648 of 1096 ⚔️ INN vs SAFE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SAFE vs. INN, ARI, SVC, CTO)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) ranks #648 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #604 by equity capitalization ($803.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ARI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. INN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with SAFE at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SAFE ACTIVE Safehold Inc.	D	51/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	-0.35%	$803.1M	Benchmark Subject
INN Summit Hotel Properties Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	6.3%	-2.06%	$784.1M	/inn-vs-safe →
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	C-	59/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-0.85%	$827.0M	/ari-vs-safe →
SVC Service Properties Trust of	D-	38/100	—	—	-31.3%	-2.34%	$830.2M	/svc-vs-safe →
CTO CTO Realty Growth Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	4.8%	+0.61%	$759.3M	/cto-vs-safe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001095651

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Safehold Inc. (SAFE) reported GAAP revenue of $385.6M (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $365.7M , and +9.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.5M, operating cash flow of $47.8M, and free cash flow of $47.8M (+26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, SAFE closed FY2025 with $7.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$385.6M	$114.5M	$47.8M	$47.8M	$7.25B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$365.7M	$105.8M	$37.9M	$37.9M	$6.90B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$352.6M	-$55.0M	$15.4M	$15.4M	—	—

3. SAFE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SAFE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SAFE compare to INN and ARI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFE?

Where is SAFE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SAFE last traded at $11.30 (-0.35% on volume of 918,122 shares), positioning the stock -12.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.89) and -23.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.68). Across its 52-week range of $10.61 to $17.45, SAFE sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($10.49 to $12.11).

SAFE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does SAFE pay a dividend and is it safe?

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) offers a 6.34% cash dividend yield ($0.72 annualized) and 8.14% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as SAFE COVERAGE.

Direct Sub-Reports: SAFE RQD Cockpit SAFE 12M Forecast SAFE Earnings & Move SAFE Dividends & DRIP SAFE Insiders & 13F SAFE Whale Options SAFE Profit Sankey SAFE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SAFE — Safehold Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SAFE carries an RQD Score of 51 and a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 10 of 20 (ROIC 3.3%; FCF yield 5.95%); Whale 13F Flow at 3 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 16 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 9 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar is institutional flow, which scores 3 of 20, indicating limited measured institutional accumulation in the source data. The strongest pillar is insider conviction at 16 of 20, which points to meaningful insider-side activity that partially offsets the weak institutional read. The cash-engine pillar at 10 of 20 reflects a low ROIC of 3.3% against a 5.95% FCF yield, suggesting that cash generation is present but capital efficiency is modest. The forensic balance sheet score of 13 of 20 is supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6 of 9 and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5, though the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 does not by itself settle solvency questions. Valuation appears low on the source metrics (P/E TTM 7, Forward P/E 6.5), which is a potential upside argument, but the combined RQD verdict frames the setup as distribution-risk rather than accumulation, so low multiples should be weighed against the weak flow and macro-fit scores rather than read in isolation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
11.34	$803.1M	7	6.5	7.7	1.62	6.34%	1.0	$10.61 - $17.45	3.3%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$385.6M	$100.9M	$114.5M	N/A	$47.8M	$21.7M	N/A
FY 2024	$365.7M	$87.1M	$105.8M	N/A	$37.9M	$8.3M	N/A
FY 2023	$352.6M	$-77.1M	$-55.0M	N/A	$15.4M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $352.6M in FY 2023 to $385.6M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-77.1M to $100.9M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 26.2%, net margin is 29.7%, and gross margin is 0%; ROIC is 3.3%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6 of 9, both per the Roarable RQD rating. Cash rose from $8.3M in FY 2024 to $21.7M in FY 2025, while debt is reported as N/A in all periods, so the balance-sheet posture beyond the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5 cannot be fully characterized from the financials table.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines are mixed. A Seeking Alpha item titled with a "Strong Buy" framing and a Yahoo Finance forecast item are both tagged yellow. A Morgan Stanley upgrade headline citing headwinds possibly priced in is the only item tagged green as a CATALYST, and it is the most directly relevant positive signal in the feed. A MarketBeat item reports the stock is rated "Hold" by sell-side brokerages. The Globe and Mail items describe analyst opinions as mixed. Risk watch items include the mixed analyst tone and the sell-side Hold characterization, both per the news feed. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals, so no butterfly-derived catalysts are available.

Open Questions

What is the composition of the institutional 13F holder base, and what drives the 3 of 20 whale-flow score?
What specific insider Form 4 and Congressional transactions make up the 16 of 20 insider-conviction score, and over what period?
Why is total debt reported as N/A in every period, and what is the full capital structure behind the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5?
Which sell-side brokerages hold the "Hold" rating, and what are their price targets?
What drives the gross margin of 0% alongside a 26.2% operating margin, and how is the REIT revenue base classified?

SAFE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Safehold Inc. (SAFE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SAFE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 2h ago

Safehold: I Was Waiting For This Opportunity (Strong Buy) (NYSE:SAFE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 5h ago

Safehold Inc. New (SAFE) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 8h ago

Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Real Estate Stocks: Safehold (SAFE) and Unite Group plc (GB:UTG)

The Globe and Mail report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 11h ago

Safehold Inc. (NYSE:SAFE) Stock Rated "Hold" by Sell-Side Brokerages

MarketBeat report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 14h ago

Morgan Stanley upgrades Safehold citing headwinds may have been priced in (SAFE:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 17h ago

Analysts Offer Insights on Real Estate Companies: Eastgroup Properties (EGP) and Safehold (SAFE)

The Globe and Mail report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.dars.gov.et • 20h ago

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Slides 3.51% to $11.55, Drifting Toward Key Support - Low Beta Factor

www.dars.gov.et report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 23h ago

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Slips 1.77% to $11.35 as Shares Sit Between Key Technical Boundaries - TRIN Signal

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Safehold Inc. (SAFE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SAFE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.30?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SAFE 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $12.25 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SAFE (D • RQD 51/100) a Buy at $11.34?

Welcome to the SAFE (Safehold Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 51/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Real Estate Investment Trusts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.85 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $11.34

Pump the brakes on SAFE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SAFE, but look at what you are paying: 7.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Safehold Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.04 (+15.0%)

Spot @ $11.34

SAFE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SAFE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate Investment Trusts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.34 (52-wk range $10.61 - $17.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.