MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why RDWR Stock slipped -1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$36.64 -1.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.48
Radware Ltd. (RDWR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.55B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.48 (-0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 13.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RDWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RDWR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (32% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (19% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.8% FCF Margin ($41.6M FCF) & 80.7% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$30.98-12.3% Next Q
39
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$27.16+14.4% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$31.07+17.9% Next Q
44
CurrentGrade D$36.64-5.9% Hist 90D α
47
Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RDWR Turnaround Squeeze
While RDWR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.80) and Max Pain ($38.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $41.10.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RDWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RDWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why RDWR Stock slipped -1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Radware Ltd. (RDWR) slipped -1.40% to $36.64, trading at 89% of its 52-week range ($21.68 – $38.5). Stretched risk/reward at 77x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 89% of its 52-week range ($21.68 – $38.5) with RSI-14 at 62.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.4% around $36.64 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 80.7% gross margin and $41.6M annual free cash flow.
Live RDWR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RDWR)
- ✓Walkthrough of RDWR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RDWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +36.72%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $36.05H $36.64L $33.90C $36.64VOL 1.17M
RES: $38.63SUP: $26.23SMA50: $29.80SMA200: $27.75
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
RDWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +9.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RDWR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RDWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RDWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RDWR)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #701 of 1011
⚔️ NUTX vs RDWR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RDWR vs. NUTX, LQDT, WU, RSKD)
Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Radware Ltd. (RDWR) ranks #701 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #449 by equity capitalization ($1.55B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WU leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NUTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 50.8% gross margin. NUTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with RDWR at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDWR
ACTIVE
Radware Ltd. | D | 47/100 | 76.5x | 80.7% | 3.7% | -1.40% | $1.55B | Benchmark Subject |
| NUTX Nutex Health Inc. | B | 75/100 | 20.3x | 50.8% | 85.0% | -1.19% | $1.44B | /nutx-vs-rdwr → |
| LQDT Liquidity Services Inc. | B | 72/100 | 50.5x | 43.8% | 12.9% | +3.32% | $1.42B | /lqdt-vs-rdwr → |
| WU Western Union Company | C+ | 68/100 | 3.9x | 34.3% | 85.0% | +1.97% | $1.94B | /wu-vs-rdwr → |
| RSKD Riskified Ltd. (Class A) | D+ | 53/100 | — | 51.7% | -20.3% | -0.55% | $1.22B | /rskd-vs-rdwr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001094366In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Radware Ltd. (RDWR) reported GAAP revenue of $301.9M (+9.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $274.9M , and +15.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $20.3M, operating cash flow of $50.1M, and free cash flow of $41.6M (-37.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, RDWR closed FY2025 with $671.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $301.9M | $20.3M | $50.1M | $41.6M | $671.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $274.9M | $6.0M | $71.6M | $66.3M | $618.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $261.3M | -$21.6M | -$3.5M | -$3.5M | — | — |
3. RDWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs RDWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Radware Ltd. (NASDAQ: RDWR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $36.64 (-1.40% 1D, market cap $1.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RDWR ranks #701 in composite RQD confidence.
How does RDWR compare to NUTX and LQDT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), RDWR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.5x, gross margin of 80.7%, and ROIC of 3.7%. By comparison, NUTX (Nutex Health Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 20.3x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.44B) and LQDT (Liquidity Services Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 50.5x, ROIC 12.9%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WU leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NUTX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RDWR?
Per RDWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001094366), Radware Ltd. generated $301.9M in revenue (+9.8% YoY), $20.3M in net income, and $41.6M in free cash flow against $671.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is RDWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
RDWR last traded at $36.64 (-1.40% on volume of 503,675 shares), positioning the stock +22.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($29.80) and +32.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.75). Across its 52-week range of $21.68 to $38.50, RDWR sits at the 88.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.4% ($32.10 to $41.18).
RDWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is RDWR stock moving today?
Why RDWR Stock slipped -1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 77x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.