Stock Ratings / Industrials / PLOW / options

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Douglas Dynamics Inc. (PLOW) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$39.83 +0.33% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.95

Douglas Dynamics Inc. (PLOW) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (27% profit margin, 21% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $919.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.95 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 9.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PLOW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PLOW SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.7% FCF Margin ($63.9M FCF) & 26.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$39.19+0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$39.54+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$39.80+0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B$39.83+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PLOW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, PLOW faces multiple-compression risk if 19.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 24.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.27) or 200D SMA ($43.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.34) toward Bear Floor ($32.66).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PLOW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PLOW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PLOW)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PLOW.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PLOW & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PLOW
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PLOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $39.65H $40.02L $38.87C $39.83VOL 193.5K

RES: $40.18SUP: $38.32SMA50: $40.27SMA200: $43.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PLOW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PLOW Butterfly Map → + Track PLOW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PLOW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PLOW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PLOW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PLOW)

Industrials Rank #49 of 485 ⚔️ ASTE vs PLOW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (PLOW vs. ASTE, MTW, WNC, HY)

Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Douglas Dynamics Inc. (PLOW) ranks #49 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #260 by equity capitalization ($919.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PLOW leads on earnings valuation at 19.6x trailing P/E, while WNC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 31.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PLOW currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PLOW ACTIVE Douglas Dynamics Inc.	B	72/100	19.6x	26.6%	20.7%	+0.33%	$919.2M	Benchmark Subject
ASTE Astec Industries Inc.	C	62/100	23.7x	26.5%	5.6%	+2.41%	$918.9M	/aste-vs-plow →
MTW Manitowoc Company Inc.	D-	41/100	119.2x	18.1%	6.9%	+2.81%	$858.3M	/mtw-vs-plow →
WNC Wabash National Corporation	D+	53/100	—	—	31.2%	-4.05%	$540.2M	/wnc-vs-plow →
HY Hyster-Yale Inc. (Class A)	D+	52/100	—	16.8%	-3.7%	0.00%	$526.1M	/hy-vs-plow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001287213

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Douglas Dynamics Inc. (PLOW) reported GAAP revenue of $656.1M (+15.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $568.5M , and +15.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.9M, operating cash flow of $74.7M, and free cash flow of $63.9M (+91.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, PLOW closed FY2025 with $626.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$656.1M	$46.9M	$74.7M	$63.9M	$626.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$568.5M	$56.2M	$41.1M	$33.4M	$590.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$568.2M	$23.7M	$12.5M	$12.5M	—	—

3. PLOW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PLOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Douglas Dynamics Inc. (NYSE: PLOW) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $39.83 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $919.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, PLOW ranks #49 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PLOW compare to ASTE and MTW in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks), PLOW carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.6x, gross margin of 26.6%, and ROIC of 20.7%. By comparison, ASTE (Astec Industries Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 23.7x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $918.9M) and MTW (Manitowoc Company Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E 119.2x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $858.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PLOW leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while WNC leads on capital efficiency (31.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PLOW?

Per PLOW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001287213), Douglas Dynamics Inc. generated $656.1M in revenue (+15.4% YoY), $46.9M in net income, and $63.9M in free cash flow against $626.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (27% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PLOW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PLOW last traded at $39.83 (+0.33% on volume of 156,359 shares), positioning the stock -1.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($40.27) and -7.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.06). Across its 52-week range of $28.52 to $55.00, PLOW sits at the 42.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($38.04 to $41.62).