Stock Ratings / Financials / ORC / options

CSR (66) JBGS (52) DEA (52) ESRT (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: Is ORC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $5.03 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $970.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ORC ranks #322 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does ORC compare to CSR and JBGS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ORC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, CSR (D/B/A Centerspace) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $986.3M) and JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $896.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ORC leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORC?

Per ORC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518621), Orchid Island Capital Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $159.3M in net income, and $120.4M in free cash flow against $11.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is ORC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORC last traded at $5.03 (-0.20% on volume of 6,432,600 shares), positioning the stock -12.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.72) and -25.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.73). Across its 52-week range of $4.75 to $8.40, ORC sits at the 7.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($4.65 to $5.41).

Q: What is ORC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ORC.

$5.03 -0.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.02

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $970.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.02 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ORC SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 8% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 30.7 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$5.08-2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$4.97+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$5.05-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$5.03+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, ORC faces multiple-compression risk if 6.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.72) or 200D SMA ($6.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.19) toward Bear Floor ($4.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ORC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.6%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ORC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ORC.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ORC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ORC
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ORC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.45%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $4.91H $5.03L $4.76C $5.03VOL 7.83M

RES: $7.07SUP: $4.59SMA50: $5.72SMA200: $6.73

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORC Butterfly Map → + Track ORC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORC)

Financials Rank #322 of 1096 ⚔️ CSR vs ORC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ORC vs. CSR, JBGS, DEA, ESRT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) ranks #322 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #566 by equity capitalization ($970.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORC leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while ORC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CSR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with ORC at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ORC ACTIVE Orchid Island Capital Inc.	C	65/100	6.1x	—	11.6%	-0.20%	$970.8M	Benchmark Subject
CSR D/B/A Centerspace	C+	66/100	57.7x	—	7.2%	+4.02%	$986.3M	/csr-vs-orc →
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties	D+	52/100	—	—	-12.0%	+3.98%	$896.2M	/jbgs-vs-orc →
DEA Easterly Government Properties Inc.	D+	52/100	82.4x	—	1.0%	+0.58%	$1.07B	/dea-vs-orc →
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	11.6%	+1.61%	$869.4M	/esrt-vs-orc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001518621

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $159.3M, operating cash flow of $120.4M, and free cash flow of $120.4M (+79.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORC closed FY2025 with $11.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$159.3M	$120.4M	$120.4M	$11.68B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$37.8M	$67.0M	$67.0M	$5.72B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$39.2M	$8.0M	$8.0M	—	—

3. ORC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $5.03 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $970.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ORC ranks #322 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORC compare to CSR and JBGS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ORC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, CSR (D/B/A Centerspace) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $986.3M) and JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $896.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ORC leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORC?

Per ORC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518621), Orchid Island Capital Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $159.3M in net income, and $120.4M in free cash flow against $11.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORC last traded at $5.03 (-0.20% on volume of 6,432,600 shares), positioning the stock -12.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.72) and -25.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.73). Across its 52-week range of $4.75 to $8.40, ORC sits at the 7.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($4.65 to $5.41).

ORC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ORC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ORC.

Direct Sub-Reports: ORC RQD Cockpit ORC 12M Forecast ORC Earnings & Move ORC Dividends & DRIP ORC Insiders & 13F ORC Whale Options ORC Profit Sankey ORC News & Why