Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.48 (-5.44% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.39) or 200D SMA ($28.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.48) toward Bear Floor ($22.21).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) dropped -5.44% to $28.48, trading at 45% of its 52-week range ($23.47 – $34.59). Stretched risk/reward at 14x P/E (25% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Natural Grocers fits a Peter Lynch GARP screen: 17.8% EPS growth, 0.78 PEG, low debt, 19.9% ROE, but slower future growth and thin margins warrant research.
Natural Grocers®, the leading family-operated organic and natural grocery retailer in the U.S., invites customers to its annual Nevada Day event, October 30 through November 1 at its four Nevada stores. {N}power® members
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #63 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #80 by equity capitalization ($656.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NGVC at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC
ACTIVE
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 14.1x | 29.9% | 24.9% | -5.44% | $656.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A) | C+ | 68/100 | 11.2x | 28.6% | 14.0% | -1.43% | $630.7M | /vlgea-vs-ngvc → |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -24.4% | +4.92% | $555.2M | /dnut-vs-ngvc → |
| ARKO ARKO Corp. | C | 64/100 | 18.6x | — | 9.6% | +2.44% | $424.1M | /arko-vs-ngvc → |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 30.3% | -12.6% | +2.47% | $1.28B | /go-vs-ngvc → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.33B | $46.4M | $55.3M | $24.1M | $668.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.24B | $33.9M | $73.8M | $36.2M | $648.9M | $8.9M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.14B | $23.2M | $64.6M | $64.6M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.48 (-5.44% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
NGVC last traded at $28.48 (-5.44% on volume of 126,272 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.39) and -0.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($28.59). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($26.29 to $30.67).
Why NGVC Stock dropped -5.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 14x P/E (25% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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