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ARKO Corp. (ARKO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.78 +2.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $424.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARKO SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.6% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$4.11-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$4.10-7.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$3.81-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$3.78+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARKO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARKO faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.27) or 200D SMA ($5.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.88) toward Bear Floor ($3.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

34.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE3% OF RANGE

L: $4$3.78H: $9

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ARKO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

9.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 15.40% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARKO

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARKO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.73%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $3.78H $3.88L $3.69C $3.78VOL 1.43M

RES: $3.25SUP: $3.74SMA50: $4.27SMA200: $5.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARKO Butterfly Map → + Track ARKO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)

Consumer Staples Rank #35 of 146 ⚔️ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #85 by equity capitalization ($424.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with ARKO at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARKO ACTIVE ARKO Corp.	C	64/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+2.44%	$424.1M	Benchmark Subject
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-24.4%	+4.92%	$555.2M	/dnut-vs-arko →
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	C+	68/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	-1.43%	$630.7M	/vlgea-vs-arko →
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	D+	58/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	-5.44%	$656.4M	/ngvc-vs-arko →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	55/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.47%	$1.28B	/go-vs-arko →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001823794

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$22.7M	$192.6M	$65.3M	$3.53B	$875.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$20.8M	$221.9M	$107.9M	$3.62B	$868.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$34.4M	$136.1M	$136.1M	—	—

3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $3.78 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $424.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARKO last traded at $3.78 (+2.44% on volume of 860,405 shares), positioning the stock -11.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.27) and -36.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.99). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($3.46 to $4.10).

ARKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ARKO stock right now?

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ARKO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARKO's 12-month base price target is $3.88 (range $3.03 to $9.2), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARKO RQD Cockpit ARKO 12M Forecast ARKO Earnings & Move ARKO Dividends & DRIP ARKO Insiders & 13F ARKO Whale Options ARKO Profit Sankey ARKO News & Why