MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why ARKO Stock surged +2.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$3.78 +2.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79
ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $424.1M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARKO SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.6% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$4.11-0.2% Next Q
72
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$4.10-7.1% Next Q
69
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$3.81-0.8% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade C$3.78+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARKO Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARKO faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.27) or 200D SMA ($5.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.88) toward Bear Floor ($3.03).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ARKO Stock surged +2.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
ARKO Corp. (ARKO) surged +2.44% to $3.78, trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($3.61 – $8.76). Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($3.61 – $8.76) with RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.5% around $3.78 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $65.3M annual free cash flow.
Live ARKO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARKO Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.73%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $3.78H $3.88L $3.69C $3.78VOL 1.43M
RES: $3.25SUP: $3.74SMA50: $4.27SMA200: $5.99
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)
Consumer Staples Rank #35 of 146
⚔️ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)
Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #85 by equity capitalization ($424.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with ARKO at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKO
ACTIVE
ARKO Corp. | C | 64/100 | 18.6x | — | 9.6% | +2.44% | $424.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -24.4% | +4.92% | $555.2M | /dnut-vs-arko → |
| VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A) | C+ | 68/100 | 11.2x | 28.6% | 14.0% | -1.43% | $630.7M | /vlgea-vs-arko → |
| NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 14.1x | 29.9% | 24.9% | -5.44% | $656.4M | /ngvc-vs-arko → |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 30.3% | -12.6% | +2.47% | $1.28B | /go-vs-arko → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001823794In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $22.7M | $192.6M | $65.3M | $3.53B | $875.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $20.8M | $221.9M | $107.9M | $3.62B | $868.1M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $34.4M | $136.1M | $136.1M | — | — |
3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $3.78 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $424.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?
Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ARKO last traded at $3.78 (+2.44% on volume of 860,405 shares), positioning the stock -11.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.27) and -36.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.99). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($3.46 to $4.10).
ARKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ARKO stock moving today?
Why ARKO Stock surged +2.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.