Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / ARKO / earnings

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ARKO Corp. (ARKO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.5% Move

$3.78 +2.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $424.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARKO SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.6% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$4.11-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$4.10-7.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$3.81-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C$3.78+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARKO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ARKO faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.27) or 200D SMA ($5.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($3.88) toward Bear Floor ($3.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.5% Swing Band

±$0.32 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ARKO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 64/100

Trailing EPS: $0.20 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (64/100)Model Risk Weight (36/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$22.7M	$65.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$20.8M	$107.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$34.4M	$136.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ARKO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ARKO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.73%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $3.78H $3.88L $3.69C $3.78VOL 1.43M

RES: $3.25SUP: $3.74SMA50: $4.27SMA200: $5.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARKO Butterfly Map → + Track ARKO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)

Consumer Staples Rank #35 of 146 ⚔️ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #85 by equity capitalization ($424.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with ARKO at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARKO ACTIVE ARKO Corp.	C	64/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+2.44%	$424.1M	Benchmark Subject
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-24.4%	+4.92%	$555.2M	/dnut-vs-arko →
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	C+	68/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	-1.43%	$630.7M	/vlgea-vs-arko →
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	D+	58/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	-5.44%	$656.4M	/ngvc-vs-arko →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	55/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.47%	$1.28B	/go-vs-arko →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001823794

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$22.7M	$192.6M	$65.3M	$3.53B	$875.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$20.8M	$221.9M	$107.9M	$3.62B	$868.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$34.4M	$136.1M	$136.1M	—	—

3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $3.78 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $424.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARKO last traded at $3.78 (+2.44% on volume of 860,405 shares), positioning the stock -11.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.27) and -36.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.99). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($3.46 to $4.10).

ARKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ARKO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, ARKO Corp. (ARKO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ARKO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.5% event move for ARKO, spanning a range between $3.46 and $4.1.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARKO RQD Cockpit ARKO 12M Forecast ARKO Earnings & Move ARKO Dividends & DRIP ARKO Insiders & 13F ARKO Whale Options ARKO Profit Sankey ARKO News & Why