Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / NGVC / forecast

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$28.48 -5.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.15

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $656.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.15 (-1.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGVC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NGVC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$29.68+3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$30.61+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$31.46-9.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$28.48+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NGVC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.39) or 200D SMA ($28.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.48) toward Bear Floor ($22.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGVC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NGVC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NGVC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $28.48: 351.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $22.21

$7,798

$-2,202 (-22.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $28.48

$10,000

+$0 (+0.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $36.32

$12,753

+$2,753 (+27.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$30	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$34	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$25	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NGVC)

✓Walkthrough of NGVC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NGVC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.66%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $29.25H $29.94L $28.42C $28.48VOL 79.8K

RES: $32.36SUP: $26.77SMA50: $29.39SMA200: $28.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGVC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGVC Butterfly Map → + Track NGVC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGVC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGVC)

Consumer Staples Rank #63 of 146 ⚔️ VLGEA vs NGVC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (NGVC vs. VLGEA, DNUT, ARKO, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #63 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #80 by equity capitalization ($656.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NGVC at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NGVC ACTIVE Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	D+	58/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	-5.44%	$656.4M	Benchmark Subject
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	C+	68/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	-1.43%	$630.7M	/vlgea-vs-ngvc →
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-24.4%	+4.92%	$555.2M	/dnut-vs-ngvc →
ARKO ARKO Corp.	C	64/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+2.44%	$424.1M	/arko-vs-ngvc →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	55/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.47%	$1.28B	/go-vs-ngvc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001547459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.33B	$46.4M	$55.3M	$24.1M	$668.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.24B	$33.9M	$73.8M	$36.2M	$648.9M	$8.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.14B	$23.2M	$64.6M	$64.6M	—	—

3. NGVC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.48 (-5.44% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?

Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NGVC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGVC last traded at $28.48 (-5.44% on volume of 126,272 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.39) and -0.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($28.59). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($26.29 to $30.67).

NGVC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NGVC's 12-month stock price target?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $28.48 (+0% from $28.48), with a bull-case target of $36.32 and a bear-case floor of $22.21.