Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / NGVC / earnings

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.7% Move

$28.48 -5.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.15

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $656.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.15 (-1.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGVC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NGVC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$29.68+3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$30.61+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$31.46-9.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$28.48+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NGVC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.39) or 200D SMA ($28.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.48) toward Bear Floor ($22.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGVC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NGVC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.7% Swing Band

±$2.19 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NGVC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $2.02 • YoY Revenue Growth: 7.2%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$1.33B	$46.4M	$24.1M	29.9%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$1.24B	$33.9M	$36.2M	29.4%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$1.14B	$23.2M	$64.6M	29.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NGVC)

✓Walkthrough of NGVC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NGVC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.66%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $29.25H $29.94L $28.42C $28.48VOL 79.8K

RES: $32.36SUP: $26.77SMA50: $29.39SMA200: $28.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGVC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGVC Butterfly Map → + Track NGVC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGVC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGVC)

Consumer Staples Rank #63 of 146 ⚔️ VLGEA vs NGVC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (NGVC vs. VLGEA, DNUT, ARKO, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #63 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #80 by equity capitalization ($656.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NGVC at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NGVC ACTIVE Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	D+	58/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	-5.44%	$656.4M	Benchmark Subject
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	C+	68/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	-1.43%	$630.7M	/vlgea-vs-ngvc →
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-24.4%	+4.92%	$555.2M	/dnut-vs-ngvc →
ARKO ARKO Corp.	C	64/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+2.44%	$424.1M	/arko-vs-ngvc →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	55/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.47%	$1.28B	/go-vs-ngvc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001547459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.33B	$46.4M	$55.3M	$24.1M	$668.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.24B	$33.9M	$73.8M	$36.2M	$648.9M	$8.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.14B	$23.2M	$64.6M	$64.6M	—	—

3. NGVC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $28.48 (-5.44% 1D, market cap $656.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $630.7M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $555.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?

Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NGVC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGVC last traded at $28.48 (-5.44% on volume of 126,272 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.39) and -0.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($28.59). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($26.29 to $30.67).

NGVC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is NGVC's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is NGVC stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.7% event move for NGVC, spanning a range between $26.29 and $30.67.

Direct Sub-Reports: NGVC RQD Cockpit NGVC 12M Forecast NGVC Earnings & Move NGVC Dividends & DRIP NGVC Insiders & 13F NGVC Whale Options NGVC Profit Sankey NGVC News & Why