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Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is MOMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $4.44 (-0.67% 1D, market cap $656.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MOMO ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does MOMO compare to CCSI and VTEX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), MOMO carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.8%, and ROIC of 18.6%. By comparison, CCSI (Consensus Cloud Solutions Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 24.2%, cap $690.7M) and VTEX (VTEX (Class A)) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 34.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $697.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CCSI leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while CCSI leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MOMO?

Per MOMO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001610601), Hello Group Inc. generated $1.48B in revenue (+2.4% YoY), $0 in net income, and $98.8M in free cash flow against $1.97B in total assets and $448.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is MOMO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MOMO last traded at $4.44 (-0.67% on volume of 533,026 shares), positioning the stock -10.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.96) and -23.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.82). Across its 52-week range of $4.37 to $7.25, MOMO sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($4.20 to $4.68).

Q: What is MOMO's 12-month stock price target?

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.66 (+5% from $4.44), with a bull-case target of $7.61 and a bear-case floor of $3.63.

Q: Is MOMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MOMO C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

$4.44 -0.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.43

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $656.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.43 (-0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 6.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MOMO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MOMO SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 25.7 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$4.72-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$4.69-4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$4.50-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$4.44+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MOMO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, MOMO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 35.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.96) or 200D SMA ($5.82) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.66) toward Bear Floor ($3.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MOMO• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MOMO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MOMO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.44: 2252.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.63

$8,176

$-1,824 (-18.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.66

$10,495

+$495 (+5.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $7.61

$17,140

+$7,140 (+71.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$7	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MOMO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MOMO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $4.43H $4.49L $4.36C $4.44VOL 576.1K

RES: $5.52SUP: $4.42SMA50: $4.96SMA200: $5.82

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MOMO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MOMO Butterfly Map → + Track MOMO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MOMO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MOMO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MOMO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MOMO)

Technology Rank #118 of 714 ⚔️ CCSI vs MOMO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MOMO vs. CCSI, VTEX, CGNT, DCBO)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #398 by equity capitalization ($656.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CCSI leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while CCSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.2% ROIC and 79.8% gross margin. CCSI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MOMO at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MOMO ACTIVE Hello Group Inc.	C+	69/100	—	37.8%	18.6%	-0.67%	$656.0M	Benchmark Subject
CCSI Consensus Cloud Solutions Inc.	B-	70/100	8.2x	79.8%	24.2%	+1.13%	$690.7M	/ccsi-vs-momo →
VTEX VTEX (Class A)	C	63/100	34.8x	77.5%	6.6%	+4.40%	$697.2M	/vtex-vs-momo →
CGNT Cognyte Software Ltd.	D+	55/100	—	72.4%	11.7%	-1.66%	$723.5M	/cgnt-vs-momo →
DCBO Docebo Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-0.79%	$735.2M	/dcbo-vs-momo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001610601

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.48B (+2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.45B , and -12.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $169.2M, and free cash flow of $98.8M (-46.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MOMO closed FY2025 with $1.97B in total assets against $448.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.49, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.48B	$0	$169.2M	$98.8M	$1.97B	$448.0K
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.45B	$0	$224.7M	$185.6M	$2.52B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.69B	$0	$320.7M	$320.7M	—	—

3. MOMO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MOMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $4.44 (-0.67% 1D, market cap $656.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MOMO ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MOMO compare to CCSI and VTEX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), MOMO carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.8%, and ROIC of 18.6%. By comparison, CCSI (Consensus Cloud Solutions Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 24.2%, cap $690.7M) and VTEX (VTEX (Class A)) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 34.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $697.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CCSI leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while CCSI leads on capital efficiency (24.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MOMO?

Per MOMO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001610601), Hello Group Inc. generated $1.48B in revenue (+2.4% YoY), $0 in net income, and $98.8M in free cash flow against $1.97B in total assets and $448.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MOMO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MOMO last traded at $4.44 (-0.67% on volume of 533,026 shares), positioning the stock -10.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.96) and -23.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.82). Across its 52-week range of $4.37 to $7.25, MOMO sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($4.20 to $4.68).

MOMO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MOMO's 12-month stock price target?

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.66 (+5% from $4.44), with a bull-case target of $7.61 and a bear-case floor of $3.63.

Is MOMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MOMO C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MOMO RQD Cockpit MOMO 12M Forecast MOMO Earnings & Move MOMO Dividends & DRIP MOMO Insiders & 13F MOMO Whale Options MOMO Profit Sankey MOMO News & Why