Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MGRC / forecast

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McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$119.60 +0.69% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.52

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.91B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.52 (-0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MGRC SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.4% FCF Margin ($211.3M FCF) & 48.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$113.64-0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$113.03+3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$117.16+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$119.60+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MGRC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MGRC faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 45.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($113.75) or 200D SMA ($113.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($123.37) toward Bear Floor ($96.23).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MGRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MGRC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $119.60: 83.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $96.23

$8,046

$-1,954 (-19.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $123.37

$10,315

+$315 (+3.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $145.58

$12,172

+$2,172 (+21.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$128	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$137	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$110	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MGRC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MGRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $119.6H $119.9L $116.6C $119.6VOL 169.6K

RES: $119.7SUP: $112.2SMA50: $113.8SMA200: $114.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGRC Butterfly Map → + Track MGRC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGRC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #279 of 1011 ⚔️ ABM vs MGRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MGRC vs. ABM, VVX, CTOS, KFY)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) ranks #279 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #367 by equity capitalization ($2.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KFY leads on earnings valuation at 14.8x trailing P/E, while KFY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KFY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with MGRC at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MGRC ACTIVE McGrath RentCorp	C	65/100	18.6x	48.2%	15.6%	+0.69%	$2.91B	Benchmark Subject
ABM ABM Industries Incorporated	D+	55/100	19.5x	12.3%	7.6%	+1.18%	$3.16B	/abm-vs-mgrc →
VVX V2X Inc.	C	63/100	32.4x	8.3%	7.1%	+4.02%	$2.52B	/vvx-vs-mgrc →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-mgrc →
KFY Korn Ferry	B	72/100	14.8x	—	20.2%	+0.98%	$4.14B	/kfy-vs-mgrc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000752714

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) reported GAAP revenue of $944.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $910.9M , and +13.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $156.3M, operating cash flow of $255.7M, and free cash flow of $211.3M (-36.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGRC closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.96, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$944.2M	$156.3M	$255.7M	$211.3M	$2.36B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$910.9M	$231.7M	$374.4M	$334.1M	$2.28B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$831.8M	$174.6M	$95.3M	$95.3M	—	—

3. MGRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, McGrath RentCorp (NASDAQ: MGRC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $119.60 (+0.69% 1D, market cap $2.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MGRC ranks #279 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGRC compare to ABM and VVX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), MGRC carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 48.2%, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, ABM (ABM Industries Incorporated) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $3.16B) and VVX (V2X Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 32.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KFY leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while KFY leads on capital efficiency (20.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGRC?

Per MGRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000752714), McGrath RentCorp generated $944.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $156.3M in net income, and $211.3M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGRC last traded at $119.60 (+0.69% on volume of 310,396 shares), positioning the stock +5.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($113.75) and +4.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($113.99). Across its 52-week range of $94.99 to $125.83, MGRC sits at the 79.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($113.38 to $125.82).

MGRC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MGRC's 12-month stock price target?

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $123.37 (+3.2% from $119.60), with a bull-case target of $145.58 and a bear-case floor of $96.23.

Is MGRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MGRC C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 65/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MGRC RQD Cockpit MGRC 12M Forecast MGRC Earnings & Move MGRC Dividends & DRIP MGRC Insiders & 13F MGRC Whale Options MGRC Profit Sankey MGRC News & Why