MBIA Inc. (MBI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.5% FCF Margin ($38.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MBI faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.54) or 200D SMA ($5.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.47) toward Bear Floor ($3.49).
MBIA Inc. (MBI) slipped -0.22% to $4.45, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($4.19 – $7.87). Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
PURCHASE, N.Y., October 29, 2026--MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) will host a webcast and conference call for investors on Thursday, November 5 at 8:30 a.m. (ET) to discuss its third quarter 2026 financial results and other issues
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +90.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBI today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MBIA Inc. (MBI) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #866 by equity capitalization ($227.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MBI at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBI
ACTIVE
MBIA Inc. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | -0.22% | $227.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| OSG Octave Specialty Group Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +3.77% | $223.0M | /osg-vs-mbi → |
| KWY Kingsway Corporation | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -13.6% | -0.41% | $278.3M | /kwy-vs-mbi → |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc. | D | 46/100 | 3.8x | — | 8.8% | +1.82% | $181.3M | /jrvr-vs-mbi → |
| KINS Kingstone Companies Inc. | B | 73/100 | 7.1x | — | 33.2% | +1.73% | $290.1M | /kins-vs-mbi → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MBIA Inc. (MBI) reported GAAP revenue of $80.0M (+90.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.0M , and +1042.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$177.0M, operating cash flow of $38.0M, and free cash flow of $38.0M (+121.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $80.0M | -$177.0M | $38.0M | $38.0M | $2.01B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $42.0M | $435.0M | -$176.0M | -$176.0M | $2.17B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $7.0M | $477.0M | -$195.0M | -$195.0M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $4.45 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $227.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MBI ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MBI carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $223.0M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $278.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
Per MBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814585), MBIA Inc. generated $80.0M in revenue (+90.5% YoY), -$177.0M in net income, and $38.0M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
MBI last traded at $4.45 (-0.22% on volume of 380,869 shares), positioning the stock -1.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.54) and -21.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.66). Across its 52-week range of $4.19 to $7.87, MBI sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($4.16 to $4.74).
Why MBI Stock slipped -0.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.