Stock Ratings / Financials / MBI / financials

OSG (35) KWY (40) JRVR (46) KINS (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$4.45 -0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44

MBIA Inc. (MBI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $227.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 47.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MBI SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.5% FCF Margin ($38.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$4.52-2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$4.41+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$4.46-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$4.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MBI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MBI faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.54) or 200D SMA ($5.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.47) toward Bear Floor ($3.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MBI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$38.0M (47.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $7.0M

FY24

Rev $42.0M

FY25

Rev $80.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$80.0M	52%	0%	-$177.0M	$38.0M	15%
FY 2024	$42.0M	52%	0%	$435.0M	-$176.0M	15%
FY 2023	$7.0M	52%	0%	$477.0M	-$195.0M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBI)

✓Walkthrough of MBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.80%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $4.47H $4.51L $4.40C $4.45VOL 282.3K

RES: $8.09SUP: $3.81SMA50: $4.54SMA200: $5.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBI Butterfly Map → + Track MBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +90.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBI)

Financials Rank #575 of 1096 ⚔️ OSG vs MBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MBI vs. OSG, KWY, JRVR, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MBIA Inc. (MBI) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #866 by equity capitalization ($227.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MBI at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MBI ACTIVE MBIA Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-0.22%	$227.0M	Benchmark Subject
OSG Octave Specialty Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.77%	$223.0M	/osg-vs-mbi →
KWY Kingsway Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-13.6%	-0.41%	$278.3M	/kwy-vs-mbi →
JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	8.8%	+1.82%	$181.3M	/jrvr-vs-mbi →
KINS Kingstone Companies Inc.	B	73/100	7.1x	—	33.2%	+1.73%	$290.1M	/kins-vs-mbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000814585

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MBIA Inc. (MBI) reported GAAP revenue of $80.0M (+90.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.0M , and +1042.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$177.0M, operating cash flow of $38.0M, and free cash flow of $38.0M (+121.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$80.0M	-$177.0M	$38.0M	$38.0M	$2.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$42.0M	$435.0M	-$176.0M	-$176.0M	$2.17B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$7.0M	$477.0M	-$195.0M	-$195.0M	—	—

3. MBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $4.45 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $227.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MBI ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBI compare to OSG and KWY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MBI carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $223.0M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $278.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBI?

Per MBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814585), MBIA Inc. generated $80.0M in revenue (+90.5% YoY), -$177.0M in net income, and $38.0M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBI last traded at $4.45 (-0.22% on volume of 380,869 shares), positioning the stock -1.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.54) and -21.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.66). Across its 52-week range of $4.19 to $7.87, MBI sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($4.16 to $4.74).

MBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is MBIA Inc. (MBI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MBI converted $80.0M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $38.0M in free cash flow (47.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBI RQD Cockpit MBI 12M Forecast MBI Earnings & Move MBI Dividends & DRIP MBI Insiders & 13F MBI Whale Options MBI Profit Sankey MBI News & Why