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Kingsway Corporation (KWY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.62 -0.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59

Kingsway Corporation (KWY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $278.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59 (-0.26%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KWY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KWY SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 19% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$9.40+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$9.59+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$9.91-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$9.62-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KWY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KWY currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.72) and Max Pain ($10.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KWY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KWY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

55.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $8$9.62H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 3 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on KWY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

-13.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 0.00% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like KWY

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KWY)

✓Walkthrough of KWY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

KWY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.59%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $9.62H $9.94L $9.39C $9.62VOL 64.5K

RES: $10.07SUP: $9.27SMA50: $9.72SMA200: $10.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KWY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KWY Butterfly Map → + Track KWY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KWY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KWY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KWY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KWY)

Financials Rank #985 of 1096 ⚔️ KINS vs KWY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KWY vs. KINS, NODK, MBI, OSG)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kingsway Corporation (KWY) ranks #985 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #828 by equity capitalization ($278.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KINS leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with KWY at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KWY ACTIVE Kingsway Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-13.6%	-0.41%	$278.3M	Benchmark Subject
KINS Kingstone Companies Inc.	B	73/100	7.1x	—	33.2%	+1.73%	$290.1M	/kins-vs-kwy →
NODK NI Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-4.3%	+1.55%	$308.5M	/nodk-vs-kwy →
MBI MBIA Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-0.22%	$227.0M	/mbi-vs-kwy →
OSG Octave Specialty Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.77%	$223.0M	/osg-vs-kwy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001072627

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kingsway Corporation (KWY) reported GAAP revenue of $135.0M (+23.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $109.4M , and +30.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$10.3K, operating cash flow of -$3.0K, and free cash flow of -$3.0K (-100.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KWY closed FY2025 with $231.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$135.0M	-$10.3K	-$3.0K	-$3.0K	$231.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$109.4M	-$8.3K	$1.1M	$1.1M	$186.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$103.2M	$24.0K	-$26.2M	-$26.2M	—	—

3. KWY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KWY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Kingsway Corporation (NYSE: KWY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $9.62 (-0.41% 1D, market cap $278.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KWY ranks #985 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KWY compare to KINS and NODK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), KWY carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -13.6%. By comparison, KINS (Kingstone Companies Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.1x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $290.1M) and NODK (NI Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.3%, cap $308.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KINS leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KWY?

Per KWY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001072627), Kingsway Corporation generated $135.0M in revenue (+23.4% YoY), -$10.3K in net income, and -$3.0K in free cash flow against $231.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KWY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KWY last traded at $9.62 (-0.41% on volume of 29,172 shares), positioning the stock -1.03% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.72) and -9.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.63). Across its 52-week range of $8.41 to $14.94, KWY sits at the 18.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($8.98 to $10.26).

KWY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell KWY stock right now?

Kingsway Corporation (KWY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 40/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is KWY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

KWY's 12-month base price target is $8.84 (range $6.9 to $15.69), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: KWY RQD Cockpit KWY 12M Forecast KWY Earnings & Move KWY Dividends & DRIP KWY Insiders & 13F KWY Whale Options KWY Profit Sankey KWY News & Why