OSG (35) MBI (59) KWY (40) KINS (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.92 +1.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.93

James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $181.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.93 (+0.14%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JRVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JRVR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.63+5.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.82+3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.97-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.92-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JRVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JRVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.81) and Max Pain ($4.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JRVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JRVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.92H: $7

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on JRVR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

8.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.01% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like JRVR

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JRVR)

✓Walkthrough of JRVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

JRVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $3.96H $3.96L $3.86C $3.92VOL 153.3K

RES: $4.02SUP: $3.06SMA50: $3.81SMA200: $5.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JRVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JRVR Butterfly Map → + Track JRVR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JRVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JRVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JRVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JRVR)

Financials Rank #926 of 1096 ⚔️ OSG vs JRVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JRVR vs. OSG, MBI, KWY, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) ranks #926 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #903 by equity capitalization ($181.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with JRVR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JRVR ACTIVE James River Group Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	8.8%	+1.82%	$181.3M	Benchmark Subject
OSG Octave Specialty Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.77%	$223.0M	/osg-vs-jrvr →
MBI MBIA Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-0.22%	$227.0M	/mbi-vs-jrvr →
KWY Kingsway Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-13.6%	-0.41%	$278.3M	/kwy-vs-jrvr →
KINS Kingstone Companies Inc.	B	73/100	7.1x	—	33.2%	+1.73%	$290.1M	/kins-vs-jrvr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) reported GAAP revenue of $687.6M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $707.6M , and -15.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $47.4M, operating cash flow of -$18.8M, and free cash flow of -$23.6M (+90.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, JRVR closed FY2025 with $4.86B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$687.6M	$47.4M	-$18.8M	-$23.6M	$4.86B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$707.6M	-$81.1M	-$247.1M	-$252.0M	$5.01B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$812.0M	-$107.7M	$88.0M	$88.0M	—	—

3. JRVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JRVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, James River Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: JRVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.92 (+1.82% 1D, market cap $181.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JRVR ranks #926 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JRVR compare to OSG and MBI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), JRVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $223.0M) and MBI (MBIA Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $227.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JRVR?

Per JRVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620459), James River Group Holdings Inc. generated $687.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $47.4M in net income, and -$23.6M in free cash flow against $4.86B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JRVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JRVR last traded at $3.92 (+1.82% on volume of 222,132 shares), positioning the stock +2.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.81) and -21.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.01). Across its 52-week range of $3.36 to $7.20, JRVR sits at the 14.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($3.64 to $4.20).

JRVR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell JRVR stock right now?

James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 46/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is JRVR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

JRVR's 12-month base price target is $3.71 (range $2.89 to $7.56), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: JRVR RQD Cockpit JRVR 12M Forecast JRVR Earnings & Move JRVR Dividends & DRIP JRVR Insiders & 13F JRVR Whale Options JRVR Profit Sankey JRVR News & Why