Why JRVR Stock advanced +1.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.92 +1.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.93

James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $181.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.93 (+0.14%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (6)Whales (11)SEC (10)Macro (12)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$8 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE JRVR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JRVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JRVR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$3.63+5.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$3.82+3.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$3.97-1.3% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$3.92-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JRVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JRVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.81) and Max Pain ($4.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JRVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JRVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why JRVR Stock advanced +1.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) advanced +1.82% to $3.92, trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($3.36 – $7.2). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 15% of its 52-week range ($3.36 – $7.2) with RSI-14 at 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $3.92 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live JRVR Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 10d ago
What James River Group Doubters Saw Before The Drop

If you had backed the bullish case on James River Group at the start of 2026, the result has been painful. Holding James River Group from the start of the year would have meant a 36.8% loss, including dividends. That dro

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JRVR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of JRVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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JRVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $3.96H $3.96L $3.86C $3.92VOL 153.3K
RES: $4.02SUP: $3.06SMA50: $3.81SMA200: $5.01
$6.63$5.75$4.86$3.97$3.08RES $4.02SUP $3.06$3.922026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JRVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JRVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JRVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JRVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JRVR)

Financials Rank #926 of 1096 ⚔️ OSG vs JRVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JRVR vs. OSG, MBI, KWY, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) ranks #926 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #903 by equity capitalization ($181.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with JRVR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JRVR ACTIVE
James River Group Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 3.8x — 8.8% +1.82% $181.3M Benchmark Subject
OSG
Octave Specialty Group Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% +3.77% $223.0M /osg-vs-jrvr →
MBI
MBIA Inc.
C- 59/100 — — — -0.22% $227.0M /mbi-vs-jrvr →
KWY
Kingsway Corporation
D- 40/100 — — -13.6% -0.41% $278.3M /kwy-vs-jrvr →
KINS
Kingstone Companies Inc.
B 73/100 7.1x — 33.2% +1.73% $290.1M /kins-vs-jrvr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), James River Group Holdings Inc. (JRVR) reported GAAP revenue of $687.6M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $707.6M , and -15.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $47.4M, operating cash flow of -$18.8M, and free cash flow of -$23.6M (+90.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, JRVR closed FY2025 with $4.86B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $687.6M $47.4M -$18.8M -$23.6M $4.86B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $707.6M -$81.1M -$247.1M -$252.0M $5.01B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $812.0M -$107.7M $88.0M $88.0M — —

3. JRVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JRVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, James River Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: JRVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.92 (+1.82% 1D, market cap $181.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JRVR ranks #926 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JRVR compare to OSG and MBI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), JRVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $223.0M) and MBI (MBIA Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $227.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JRVR?

Per JRVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620459), James River Group Holdings Inc. generated $687.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), $47.4M in net income, and -$23.6M in free cash flow against $4.86B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JRVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JRVR last traded at $3.92 (+1.82% on volume of 222,132 shares), positioning the stock +2.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.81) and -21.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.01). Across its 52-week range of $3.36 to $7.20, JRVR sits at the 14.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($3.64 to $4.20).

JRVR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is JRVR stock moving today?

Why JRVR Stock advanced +1.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

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