Stock Ratings / Financials / MBI / earnings

OSG (35) KWY (40) JRVR (46) KINS (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.6% Move

$4.45 -0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44

MBIA Inc. (MBI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $227.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 47.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MBI SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.5% FCF Margin ($38.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$4.52-2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$4.41+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$4.46-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$4.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MBI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MBI faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.54) or 200D SMA ($5.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.47) toward Bear Floor ($3.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.6% Swing Band

±$0.29 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MBI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 90.5%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$80.0M	-$177.0M	$38.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$42.0M	$435.0M	-$176.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$7.0M	$477.0M	-$195.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MBI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MBI
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.80%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $4.47H $4.51L $4.40C $4.45VOL 282.3K

RES: $8.09SUP: $3.81SMA50: $4.54SMA200: $5.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBI Butterfly Map → + Track MBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +90.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBI)

Financials Rank #575 of 1096 ⚔️ OSG vs MBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MBI vs. OSG, KWY, JRVR, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MBIA Inc. (MBI) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #866 by equity capitalization ($227.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MBI at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MBI ACTIVE MBIA Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-0.22%	$227.0M	Benchmark Subject
OSG Octave Specialty Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.77%	$223.0M	/osg-vs-mbi →
KWY Kingsway Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	-13.6%	-0.41%	$278.3M	/kwy-vs-mbi →
JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	8.8%	+1.82%	$181.3M	/jrvr-vs-mbi →
KINS Kingstone Companies Inc.	B	73/100	7.1x	—	33.2%	+1.73%	$290.1M	/kins-vs-mbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000814585

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MBIA Inc. (MBI) reported GAAP revenue of $80.0M (+90.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.0M , and +1042.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$177.0M, operating cash flow of $38.0M, and free cash flow of $38.0M (+121.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$80.0M	-$177.0M	$38.0M	$38.0M	$2.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$42.0M	$435.0M	-$176.0M	-$176.0M	$2.17B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$7.0M	$477.0M	-$195.0M	-$195.0M	—	—

3. MBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $4.45 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $227.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MBI ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBI compare to OSG and KWY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MBI carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OSG (Octave Specialty Group Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $223.0M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $278.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBI?

Per MBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000814585), MBIA Inc. generated $80.0M in revenue (+90.5% YoY), -$177.0M in net income, and $38.0M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBI last traded at $4.45 (-0.22% on volume of 380,869 shares), positioning the stock -1.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.54) and -21.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.66). Across its 52-week range of $4.19 to $7.87, MBI sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($4.16 to $4.74).

MBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MBI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MBIA Inc. (MBI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MBI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.6% event move for MBI, spanning a range between $4.16 and $4.74.

Direct Sub-Reports: MBI RQD Cockpit MBI 12M Forecast MBI Earnings & Move MBI Dividends & DRIP MBI Insiders & 13F MBI Whale Options MBI Profit Sankey MBI News & Why