CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week November 1Get a weekly dividend summary for Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.
Why HFWA Stock advanced +0.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$28.91 +0.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.90
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.18B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.90 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HFWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HFWA SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$27.16+1.4% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$27.55+5.8% Next Q
63
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$29.15-0.8% Next Q
65
CurrentGrade C+$28.91+1.8% Hist 90D α
68
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HFWA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, HFWA faces multiple-compression risk if 17.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($28.25) or 200D SMA ($27.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.21) toward Bear Floor ($23.56).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HFWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HFWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HFWA Stock advanced +0.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) advanced +0.80% to $28.91, trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($21.32 – $31.25). Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($21.32 – $31.25) with RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.1% around $28.91 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $85.7M annual free cash flow.
Live HFWA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Heritage Financial: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsCost integration and rising asset yields position the bank to expand margins without chasing deposits at unsustainable rates.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Heritage Financial (HFWA) Stock May Be 34% Undervalued As Margin Expansion BuildsHeritage Financial has given long term shareholders a powerful ride over the past three years. With the stock recently closing at US$28.91, the live question is whether that price is properly supported by the returns the
RISK WATCHYahoo • 5d ago
Pat Casey Named Chief Information Officer at Heritage BankHeritage Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: HFWA) (the "Company" or "Heritage"), the parent company of Heritage Bank (the "Bank"), announces that Pat Casey will become the Executive Vice President and Chief Information Offic
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 6d ago
Heritage Financial Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-26. The following slide deck was published by Heritage Financial Corporation in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
CATALYSTYahoo • 7d ago
Is Heritage Financial (HFWA) Cheap Following Its Kitsap Conversion And Margin Improvement?Heritage Financial (HFWA) is in focus after completing the Kitsap Bank systems conversion, reporting wider net interest margin and highlighting expectations for loan growth, margin improvement and lower operating costs a
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Heritage Financial Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Heritage Financial Corporation's Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Heritage Financial (HFWA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptLoan balances and margins expanded following Kitsap Bank systems conversion.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Heritage Financial Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsHeritage Financial (NASDAQ:HFWA) reported third-quarter operating trends marked by loan and deposit growth, expanding net interest margin and the completion of its Kitsap Bank systems conversion, while also disclosing hi
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Heritage Financial (HFWA) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to SayWhile the top- and bottom-line numbers for Heritage Financial (HFWA) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended September 2026, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wal
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HFWA Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HFWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.05%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $29.16H $29.37L $28.43C $28.91VOL 315.3K
RES: $29.52SUP: $26.01SMA50: $28.25SMA200: $27.80
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HFWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HFWA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HFWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HFWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HFWA)
Financials Rank #226 of 1096
⚔️ NBBK vs HFWA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HFWA vs. NBBK, SMBC, TCBX, HIFS)
Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) ranks #226 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #521 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HFWA at 68/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFWA
ACTIVE
Heritage Financial Corporation | C+ | 68/100 | 17.5x | — | 7.3% | +0.80% | $1.18B | Benchmark Subject |
| NBBK NB Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 19.7x | — | 5.9% | +0.45% | $988.5M | /nbbk-vs-hfwa → |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 13.5x | — | 10.3% | -0.25% | $791.2M | /smbc-vs-hfwa → |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 10.2x | — | 12.5% | +0.35% | $673.0M | /tcbx-vs-hfwa → |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | +1.22% | $657.3M | /hifs-vs-hfwa → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001046025In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $67.5M, operating cash flow of $94.8M, and free cash flow of $85.7M (+40.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HFWA closed FY2025 with $6.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $67.5M | $94.8M | $85.7M | $6.97B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $43.3M | $64.5M | $61.0M | $7.11B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $61.8M | $109.5M | $109.5M | — | — |
3. HFWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HFWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HFWA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $28.91 (+0.80% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HFWA ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HFWA compare to NBBK and SMBC in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Banks), HFWA carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.3%. By comparison, NBBK (NB Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $988.5M) and SMBC (Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 13.5x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $791.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HFWA?
Per HFWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001046025), Heritage Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $67.5M in net income, and $85.7M in free cash flow against $6.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HFWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HFWA last traded at $28.91 (+0.80% on volume of 333,452 shares), positioning the stock +2.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($28.25) and +3.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.80). Across its 52-week range of $21.32 to $31.25, HFWA sits at the 76.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($27.72 to $30.10).
HFWA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HFWA stock moving today?
Why HFWA Stock advanced +0.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.