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Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$71.84 -0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.67

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $791.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.67 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMBC SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.9% FCF Margin ($75.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$69.93+0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$70.18+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$71.90-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$71.84+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SMBC faces multiple-compression risk if 13.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.09) or 200D SMA ($69.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($73.46) toward Bear Floor ($57.30).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE72% OF RANGE

L: $51$71.84H: $80

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SMBC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

10.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.52% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SMBC

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMBC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SMBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $71.84H $72.69L $70.48C $71.84VOL 109.5K

SUP: $67.41SMA50: $72.09SMA200: $69.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMBC Butterfly Map → + Track SMBC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMBC)

Financials Rank #391 of 1096 ⚔️ TCBX vs SMBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SMBC vs. TCBX, HIFS, NBBK, GCBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) ranks #391 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #605 by equity capitalization ($791.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SMBC at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMBC ACTIVE Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	13.5x	—	10.3%	-0.25%	$791.2M	Benchmark Subject
TCBX Third Coast Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	10.2x	—	12.5%	+0.35%	$673.0M	/tcbx-vs-smbc →
HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings	D	51/100	—	—	—	+1.22%	$657.3M	/hifs-vs-smbc →
NBBK NB Bancorp Inc.	C+	69/100	19.7x	—	5.9%	+0.45%	$988.5M	/nbbk-vs-smbc →
GCBC Greene County Bancorp Inc.	D+	58/100	19.6x	—	12.1%	+1.16%	$610.7M	/gcbc-vs-smbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000916907

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $58.6M, operating cash flow of $81.6M, and free cash flow of $75.3M (+23.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMBC closed FY2025 with $5.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$0	$58.6M	$81.6M	$75.3M	$5.09B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$0	$50.2M	$70.3M	$61.2M	$4.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$0	$39.2M	$62.0M	$62.0M	—	—

3. SMBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: SMBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $71.84 (-0.25% 1D, market cap $791.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SMBC ranks #391 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMBC compare to TCBX and HIFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), SMBC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, TCBX (Third Coast Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.2x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $673.0M) and HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $657.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMBC?

Per SMBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000916907), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $58.6M in net income, and $75.3M in free cash flow against $5.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMBC last traded at $71.84 (-0.25% on volume of 77,985 shares), positioning the stock -0.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($72.09) and +3.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($69.63). Across its 52-week range of $51.46 to $79.86, SMBC sits at the 71.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($68.75 to $74.93).

SMBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell SMBC stock right now?

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is SMBC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SMBC's 12-month base price target is $73.46 (range $57.3 to $86.68), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: SMBC RQD Cockpit SMBC 12M Forecast SMBC Earnings & Move SMBC Dividends & DRIP SMBC Insiders & 13F SMBC Whale Options SMBC Profit Sankey SMBC News & Why