Stock Ratings / Financials / HFWA / financials

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Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$28.91 +0.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.90

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.90 (-0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HFWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HFWA SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$27.16+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$27.55+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$29.15-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$28.91+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HFWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, HFWA faces multiple-compression risk if 17.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($28.25) or 200D SMA ($27.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.21) toward Bear Floor ($23.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HFWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HFWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HFWA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$85.7M (2.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$67.5M	$85.7M	7.3%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$43.3M	$61.0M	7.3%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$61.8M	$109.5M	7.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HFWA)

✓Walkthrough of HFWA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HFWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.05%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $29.16H $29.37L $28.43C $28.91VOL 315.3K

RES: $29.52SUP: $26.01SMA50: $28.25SMA200: $27.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HFWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HFWA Butterfly Map → + Track HFWA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HFWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HFWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HFWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HFWA)

Financials Rank #226 of 1096 ⚔️ NBBK vs HFWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HFWA vs. NBBK, SMBC, TCBX, HIFS)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) ranks #226 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #521 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HFWA at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HFWA ACTIVE Heritage Financial Corporation	C+	68/100	17.5x	—	7.3%	+0.80%	$1.18B	Benchmark Subject
NBBK NB Bancorp Inc.	C+	69/100	19.7x	—	5.9%	+0.45%	$988.5M	/nbbk-vs-hfwa →
SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	13.5x	—	10.3%	-0.25%	$791.2M	/smbc-vs-hfwa →
TCBX Third Coast Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	10.2x	—	12.5%	+0.35%	$673.0M	/tcbx-vs-hfwa →
HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings	D	51/100	—	—	—	+1.22%	$657.3M	/hifs-vs-hfwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001046025

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $67.5M, operating cash flow of $94.8M, and free cash flow of $85.7M (+40.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HFWA closed FY2025 with $6.97B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$67.5M	$94.8M	$85.7M	$6.97B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$43.3M	$64.5M	$61.0M	$7.11B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$61.8M	$109.5M	$109.5M	—	—

3. HFWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HFWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HFWA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $28.91 (+0.80% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HFWA ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HFWA compare to NBBK and SMBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), HFWA carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.3%. By comparison, NBBK (NB Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $988.5M) and SMBC (Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 13.5x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $791.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HFWA?

Per HFWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001046025), Heritage Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $67.5M in net income, and $85.7M in free cash flow against $6.97B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HFWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HFWA last traded at $28.91 (+0.80% on volume of 333,452 shares), positioning the stock +2.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($28.25) and +3.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($27.80). Across its 52-week range of $21.32 to $31.25, HFWA sits at the 76.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($27.72 to $30.10).

HFWA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HFWA converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $85.7M in free cash flow (2.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HFWA RQD Cockpit HFWA 12M Forecast HFWA Earnings & Move HFWA Dividends & DRIP HFWA Insiders & 13F HFWA Whale Options HFWA Profit Sankey HFWA News & Why