Stock Ratings / Energy / GRNT / earnings

VTS (57) OBE (52) WHK (50) GPRK (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.1% Move

$5.79 -0.34% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.78

Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $763.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GRNT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GRNT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (NYSE: GRNT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $5.79 (-0.34% 1D, market cap $763.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, GRNT ranks #115 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GRNT compare to VTS and OBE in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), GRNT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.8%. By comparison, VTS (Vitesse Energy Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 2.2%, cap $770.5M) and OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $779.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRNT?

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Per GRNT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001928446), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. generated $450.3M in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $24.4M in net income, and $296.4M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $367.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.78 (-0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 65.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRNT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRNT SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 82% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.77+14.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$5.45+7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$5.86-1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.79-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRNT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, GRNT faces multiple-compression risk if 31.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.04) or 200D SMA ($5.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.76) toward Bear Floor ($4.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRNT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRNT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.1% Swing Band

±$0.47 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GRNT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $0.18 • YoY Revenue Growth: 18.5%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$450.3M	$24.4M	$296.4M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$380.0M	$18.8M	$275.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$394.1M	$81.1M	$302.9M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GRNT)

✓Walkthrough of GRNT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GRNT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $5.81H $5.82L $5.71C $5.79VOL 753.9K

RES: $6.03SUP: $4.24SMA50: $5.04SMA200: $5.08

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRNT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRNT Butterfly Map → + Track GRNT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

24.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRNT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRNT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRNT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRNT)

Energy Rank #115 of 211 ⚔️ VTS vs GRNT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (GRNT vs. VTS, OBE, WHK, GPRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) ranks #115 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #146 by equity capitalization ($763.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. GRNT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRNT ACTIVE Granite Ridge Resources Inc.	D+	57/100	31.3x	—	3.8%	-0.34%	$763.7M	Benchmark Subject
VTS Vitesse Energy Inc.	D+	57/100	30.5x	—	2.2%	+0.11%	$770.5M	/vts-vs-grnt →
OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.93%	$779.4M	/obe-vs-grnt →
WHK WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	7.4%	-2.26%	$802.5M	/whk-vs-grnt →
GPRK Geopark Ltd	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.64%	$702.2M	/gprk-vs-grnt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001928446

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Ridge Resources Inc. (GRNT) reported GAAP revenue of $450.3M (+18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $380.0M , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.4M, operating cash flow of $296.4M, and free cash flow of $296.4M (+7.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRNT closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $367.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.34, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$450.3M	$24.4M	$296.4M	$296.4M	$1.17B	$367.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$380.0M	$18.8M	$275.7M	$275.7M	$1.04B	$205.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$394.1M	$81.1M	$302.9M	$302.9M	—	—

3. GRNT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRNT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GRNT compare to VTS and OBE in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRNT?

Where is GRNT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRNT last traded at $5.79 (-0.34% on volume of 937,209 shares), positioning the stock +14.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.04) and +13.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.08). Across its 52-week range of $4.18 to $6.15, GRNT sits at the 81.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($5.32 to $6.26).