MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FSUN Stock advanced +0.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$39.35 +0.69% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.32
FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.79B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.32 (-0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSUN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FSUN SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$38.49-1.4% Next Q
52
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$37.95+4.9% Next Q
55
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$39.81-1.2% Next Q
57
CurrentGrade C-$39.35+0.4% Hist 90D α
60
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSUN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, FSUN faces multiple-compression risk if 18.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.38) or 200D SMA ($37.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.70) toward Bear Floor ($30.97).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSUN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FSUN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FSUN Stock advanced +0.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) advanced +0.69% to $39.35, trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($29.95 – $42.34). Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($29.95 – $42.34) with RSI-14 at 51 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $39.35 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $104.0M annual free cash flow.
Live FSUN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FSUN Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FSUN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $39.35H $39.54L $38.99C $39.35VOL 282.7K
RES: $40.72SUP: $31.16SMA50: $39.38SMA200: $37.87
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FSUN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSUN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSUN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSUN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSUN)
Financials Rank #490 of 1096
⚔️ RBCAA vs FSUN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSUN vs. RBCAA, STBA, CNOB, BY)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) ranks #490 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #448 by equity capitalization ($1.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STBA leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.9% ROIC and — gross margin. RBCAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FSUN at 60/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSUN
ACTIVE
FirstSun Capital Bancorp | C- | 60/100 | 18.3x | — | 8.5% | +0.69% | $1.79B | Benchmark Subject |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc. (Class A) | B | 72/100 | 13.7x | — | 11.9% | +0.30% | $1.80B | /rbcaa-vs-fsun → |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 13.4x | — | 9.2% | +1.21% | $1.80B | /stba-vs-fsun → |
| CNOB ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 22.0x | — | 5.1% | +0.12% | $1.77B | /cnob-vs-fsun → |
| BY Byline Bancorp Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 13.5x | — | 10.3% | +0.75% | $1.76B | /by-vs-fsun → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001709442In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $97.9M, operating cash flow of $111.5M, and free cash flow of $104.0M (+8.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSUN closed FY2025 with $8.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $97.9M | $111.5M | $104.0M | $8.49B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $75.6M | $101.1M | $95.7M | $8.10B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $103.5M | $125.2M | $125.2M | — | — |
3. FSUN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FSUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSUN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $39.35 (+0.69% 1D, market cap $1.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FSUN ranks #490 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FSUN compare to RBCAA and STBA in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FSUN carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, RBCAA (Republic Bancorp Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $1.80B) and STBA (S&T Bancorp Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $1.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STBA leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while RBCAA leads on capital efficiency (11.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSUN?
Per FSUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709442), FirstSun Capital Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $97.9M in net income, and $104.0M in free cash flow against $8.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FSUN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FSUN last traded at $39.35 (+0.69% on volume of 288,729 shares), positioning the stock -0.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.38) and +3.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.87). Across its 52-week range of $29.95 to $42.34, FSUN sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($37.42 to $41.28).
FSUN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FSUN stock moving today?
Why FSUN Stock advanced +0.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.