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Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$43.17 +0.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.15

Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $311.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.15 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FRD SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.2% FCF Margin ($8.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$41.98-3.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$40.48+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$41.83+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$43.17+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, FRD faces multiple-compression risk if 15.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.05) or 200D SMA ($29.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.95) toward Bear Floor ($34.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

FRD Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (FRD)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on FRD. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FRD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +109.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $42.52H $43.24L $41.52C $43.17VOL 45.9K

RES: $43.04SUP: $39.43SMA50: $42.05SMA200: $29.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FRD Butterfly Map → + Track FRD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRD)

Materials Rank #41 of 270 ⚔️ TWI vs FRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (FRD vs. TWI, ASTL, IIIN, MTUS)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #201 by equity capitalization ($311.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. IIIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with FRD at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FRD ACTIVE Friedman Industries Inc.	C	62/100	15.9x	—	13.7%	+0.82%	$311.4M	Benchmark Subject
TWI Titan International Inc.	E	22/100	—	13.9%	5.3%	-25.83%	$316.9M	/twi-vs-frd →
ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+1.01%	$527.3M	/astl-vs-frd →
IIIN Insteel Industries Inc.	C	64/100	13.7x	14.4%	11.4%	+2.59%	$560.6M	/iiin-vs-frd →
MTUS Metallus Inc.	D	46/100	—	8.2%	-0.2%	+1.18%	$887.8M	/mtus-vs-frd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000039092

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $19.5M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, FRD closed FY2025 with $311.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$0	$19.5M	—	—	$311.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$0	$6.1M	-$4.4M	-$8.4M	$210.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$0	$17.3M	$5.0M	$5.0M	—	—

3. FRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Friedman Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: FRD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $43.17 (+0.82% 1D, market cap $311.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, FRD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FRD compare to TWI and ASTL in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), FRD carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, TWI (Titan International Inc.) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M) and ASTL (Algoma Steel Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $527.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRD?

Per FRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000039092), Friedman Industries Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $19.5M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $311.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FRD last traded at $43.17 (+0.82% on volume of 42,984 shares), positioning the stock +2.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.05) and +46.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.44). Across its 52-week range of $16.55 to $48.77, FRD sits at the 82.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($39.80 to $46.54).

FRD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are FRD insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies FRD leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: FRD RQD Cockpit FRD 12M Forecast FRD Earnings & Move FRD Dividends & DRIP FRD Insiders & 13F FRD Whale Options FRD Profit Sankey FRD News & Why