Stock Ratings / Materials / FRD / earnings

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Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.8% Move

$43.17 +0.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.15

Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $311.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FRD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Friedman Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: FRD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $43.17 (+0.82% 1D, market cap $311.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, FRD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FRD compare to TWI and ASTL in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), FRD carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, TWI (Titan International Inc.) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M) and ASTL (Algoma Steel Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $527.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRD?

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Per FRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000039092), Friedman Industries Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $19.5M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $311.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.15 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 0.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FRD SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.2% FCF Margin ($8.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$41.98-3.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$40.48+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$41.83+3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$43.17+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, FRD faces multiple-compression risk if 15.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.05) or 200D SMA ($29.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.95) toward Bear Floor ($34.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.8% Swing Band

±$3.37 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FRD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $2.71 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-03-31	$0	$19.5M	$17.6M	52%
FY 2024	2025-03-31	$0	$6.1M	-$8.4M	52%
FY 2023	2024-03-31	$0	$17.3M	$5.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FRD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FRD
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +109.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $42.52H $43.24L $41.52C $43.17VOL 45.9K

RES: $43.04SUP: $39.43SMA50: $42.05SMA200: $29.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FRD Butterfly Map → + Track FRD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRD)

Materials Rank #41 of 270 ⚔️ TWI vs FRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (FRD vs. TWI, ASTL, IIIN, MTUS)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #201 by equity capitalization ($311.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. IIIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with FRD at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FRD ACTIVE Friedman Industries Inc.	C	62/100	15.9x	—	13.7%	+0.82%	$311.4M	Benchmark Subject
TWI Titan International Inc.	E	22/100	—	13.9%	5.3%	-25.83%	$316.9M	/twi-vs-frd →
ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+1.01%	$527.3M	/astl-vs-frd →
IIIN Insteel Industries Inc.	C	64/100	13.7x	14.4%	11.4%	+2.59%	$560.6M	/iiin-vs-frd →
MTUS Metallus Inc.	D	46/100	—	8.2%	-0.2%	+1.18%	$887.8M	/mtus-vs-frd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000039092

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $19.5M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, FRD closed FY2025 with $311.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$0	$19.5M	—	—	$311.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$0	$6.1M	-$4.4M	-$8.4M	$210.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$0	$17.3M	$5.0M	$5.0M	—	—

3. FRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FRD compare to TWI and ASTL in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRD?

Where is FRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FRD last traded at $43.17 (+0.82% on volume of 42,984 shares), positioning the stock +2.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.05) and +46.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.44). Across its 52-week range of $16.55 to $48.77, FRD sits at the 82.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($39.80 to $46.54).

FRD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is FRD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is FRD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.8% event move for FRD, spanning a range between $39.8 and $46.54.

Direct Sub-Reports: FRD RQD Cockpit FRD 12M Forecast FRD Earnings & Move FRD Dividends & DRIP FRD Insiders & 13F FRD Whale Options FRD Profit Sankey FRD News & Why