MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FPH Stock surged +2.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$4.20 +2.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.21
Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $621.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.21 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 97.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FPH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (20% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$4.48-2.9% Next Q
73
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$4.35-3.4% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$4.20+0% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade C$4.20+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FPH Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, FPH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.71) or 200D SMA ($5.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.33) toward Bear Floor ($3.38).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FPH Stock surged +2.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) surged +2.69% to $4.20, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($4.02 – $6.47). Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($4.02 – $6.47) with RSI-14 at 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.4% around $4.20 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $105.0M annual free cash flow.
Live FPH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FPH Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.66%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $4.21H $4.28L $4.14C $4.20VOL 146.6K
RES: $4.68SUP: $3.98SMA50: $4.71SMA200: $5.05
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -54.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FPH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FPH)
Financials Rank #327 of 1096
⚔️ HPP vs FPH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FPH vs. HPP, AGNT, CRESY, SKYH)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) ranks #327 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #659 by equity capitalization ($621.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYH leads on earnings valuation at 43.2x trailing P/E, while FPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.7% ROIC and — gross margin. FPH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH
ACTIVE
Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) | C | 65/100 | — | — | 7.7% | +2.69% | $621.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| HPP Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | -19.9% | +0.64% | $601.8M | /hpp-vs-fph → |
| AGNT AGNT Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | -14.3% | +1.53% | $665.1M | /agnt-vs-fph → |
| CRESY Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | +0.83% | $776.0M | /cresy-vs-fph → |
| SKYH Sky Harbour Group Corporation (Class A) | D- | 37/100 | 43.2x | — | -12.9% | +0.61% | $813.0M | /skyh-vs-fph → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001574197In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) reported GAAP revenue of $108.2M (-54.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $236.0M , and -48.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $183.5M, operating cash flow of $105.2M, and free cash flow of $105.0M (-8.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FPH closed FY2025 with $3.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $108.2M | $183.5M | $105.2M | $105.0M | $3.25B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $236.0M | $177.6M | $116.0M | $115.2M | $3.08B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $209.9M | $113.7M | $154.1M | $154.1M | — | — |
3. FPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (NYSE: FPH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $4.20 (+2.69% 1D, market cap $621.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FPH ranks #327 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FPH compare to HPP and AGNT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FPH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, HPP (Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.9%, cap $601.8M) and AGNT (AGNT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $665.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYH leads on earnings multiple (43.2x) while FPH leads on capital efficiency (7.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FPH?
Per FPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001574197), Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) generated $108.2M in revenue (-54.2% YoY), $183.5M in net income, and $105.0M in free cash flow against $3.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FPH last traded at $4.20 (+2.69% on volume of 299,710 shares), positioning the stock -10.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.71) and -16.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.05). Across its 52-week range of $4.02 to $6.47, FPH sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($3.89 to $4.51).
FPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FPH stock moving today?
Why FPH Stock surged +2.69% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.