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Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.20 +2.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.21

Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $621.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.21 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 97.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FPH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$4.48-2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$4.35-3.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$4.20+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C$4.20+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, FPH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.71) or 200D SMA ($5.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.33) toward Bear Floor ($3.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

39.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE

L: $4$4.20H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on FPH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

7.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 16.89% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (72)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 18/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FPH

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FPH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.66%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $4.21H $4.28L $4.14C $4.20VOL 146.6K

RES: $4.68SUP: $3.98SMA50: $4.71SMA200: $5.05

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FPH Butterfly Map → + Track FPH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -54.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FPH)

Financials Rank #327 of 1096 ⚔️ HPP vs FPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FPH vs. HPP, AGNT, CRESY, SKYH)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) ranks #327 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #659 by equity capitalization ($621.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYH leads on earnings valuation at 43.2x trailing P/E, while FPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.7% ROIC and — gross margin. FPH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FPH ACTIVE Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A)	C	65/100	—	—	7.7%	+2.69%	$621.7M	Benchmark Subject
HPP Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-19.9%	+0.64%	$601.8M	/hpp-vs-fph →
AGNT AGNT Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-14.3%	+1.53%	$665.1M	/agnt-vs-fph →
CRESY Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+0.83%	$776.0M	/cresy-vs-fph →
SKYH Sky Harbour Group Corporation (Class A)	D-	37/100	43.2x	—	-12.9%	+0.61%	$813.0M	/skyh-vs-fph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001574197

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) reported GAAP revenue of $108.2M (-54.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $236.0M , and -48.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $183.5M, operating cash flow of $105.2M, and free cash flow of $105.0M (-8.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FPH closed FY2025 with $3.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$108.2M	$183.5M	$105.2M	$105.0M	$3.25B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$236.0M	$177.6M	$116.0M	$115.2M	$3.08B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$209.9M	$113.7M	$154.1M	$154.1M	—	—

3. FPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (NYSE: FPH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $4.20 (+2.69% 1D, market cap $621.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FPH ranks #327 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FPH compare to HPP and AGNT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FPH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, HPP (Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.9%, cap $601.8M) and AGNT (AGNT Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.3%, cap $665.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYH leads on earnings multiple (43.2x) while FPH leads on capital efficiency (7.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FPH?

Per FPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001574197), Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) generated $108.2M in revenue (-54.2% YoY), $183.5M in net income, and $105.0M in free cash flow against $3.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FPH last traded at $4.20 (+2.69% on volume of 299,710 shares), positioning the stock -10.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.71) and -16.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.05). Across its 52-week range of $4.02 to $6.47, FPH sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($3.89 to $4.51).

FPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FPH stock right now?

Five Point Holdings LLC (Class A) (FPH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is FPH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FPH's 12-month base price target is $4.33 (range $3.38 to $6.79), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FPH RQD Cockpit FPH 12M Forecast FPH Earnings & Move FPH Dividends & DRIP FPH Insiders & 13F FPH Whale Options FPH Profit Sankey FPH News & Why