MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FOR Stock dropped -3.43% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$25.03 -3.43% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83
Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.28B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83 (-0.81%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FOR SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 24% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$25.65+0.1% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$25.67+1.6% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$26.09-4.1% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$25.03-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOR Turnaround Squeeze
While FOR currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.51) and Max Pain ($26.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.66.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FOR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FOR Stock dropped -3.43% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Forestar Group Inc (FOR) dropped -3.43% to $25.03, trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($22.81 – $32.06). Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($22.81 – $32.06) with RSI-14 at 35.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.9% around $25.03 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FOR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOR)
- ✓Walkthrough of FOR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FOR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.43%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $24.99H $25.23L $23.82C $25.03VOL 348.7K
RES: $26.26SUP: $24.84SMA50: $26.51SMA200: $27.42
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FOR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-6.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOR)
Financials Rank #964 of 1096
⚔️ IIPR vs FOR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FOR vs. IIPR, EFC, MMI, BXDC)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forestar Group Inc (FOR) ranks #964 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #514 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FOR at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOR
ACTIVE
Forestar Group Inc | D- | 42/100 | 7.6x | — | 9.4% | -3.43% | $1.28B | Benchmark Subject |
| IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. | C | 65/100 | 12.5x | — | 5.4% | +1.14% | $1.47B | /iipr-vs-for → |
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | D | 51/100 | 10.1x | — | 8.2% | +0.77% | $1.52B | /efc-vs-for → |
| MMI Marcus & Millichap Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | -1.8% | +0.65% | $1.06B | /mmi-vs-for → |
| BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | — | +0.37% | $1.63B | /bxdc-vs-for → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001406587In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.51B , and +15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $167.9M, operating cash flow of -$197.7M, and free cash flow of -$199.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOR closed FY2025 with $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.66B | $167.9M | -$197.7M | -$199.9M | $3.18B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.51B | $203.4M | -$158.4M | -$160.6M | $2.96B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.44B | $166.9M | $364.1M | $364.1M | — | — |
3. FOR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $25.03 (-3.43% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #964 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FOR compare to IIPR and EFC in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.47B) and EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $1.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?
Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FOR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FOR last traded at $25.03 (-3.43% on volume of 345,625 shares), positioning the stock -5.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.51) and -8.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.42). Across its 52-week range of $22.81 to $32.06, FOR sits at the 24.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($23.30 to $26.76).
FOR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FOR stock moving today?
Why FOR Stock dropped -3.43% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.