IIPR (65) BXDC (62) FOR (42) OPEN (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.83 +0.77% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

36.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $11$11.83H: $14

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on EFC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

8.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like EFC

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EFC)

✓Walkthrough of EFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

EFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.72%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $11.68H $11.83L $11.36C $11.83VOL 1.69M

RES: $13.82SUP: $10.89SMA50: $12.37SMA200: $12.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EFC Butterfly Map → + Track EFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EFC)

Financials Rank #792 of 1096 ⚔️ IIPR vs EFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EFC vs. IIPR, BXDC, FOR, OPEN)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) ranks #792 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #483 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with EFC at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EFC ACTIVE Ellington Financial Inc.	D	51/100	10.1x	—	8.2%	+0.77%	$1.52B	Benchmark Subject
IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.	C	65/100	12.5x	—	5.4%	+1.14%	$1.47B	/iipr-vs-efc →
BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	—	+0.37%	$1.63B	/bxdc-vs-efc →
FOR Forestar Group Inc	D-	42/100	7.6x	—	9.4%	-3.43%	$1.28B	/for-vs-efc →
OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.52%	$1.85B	/open-vs-efc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001411342

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $150.8M, operating cash flow of -$925.5M, and free cash flow of -$925.5M (-115.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EFC closed FY2025 with $19.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$150.8M	-$925.5M	-$925.5M	$19.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$148.1M	-$430.5M	-$430.5M	$16.32B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$87.9K	-$241.9M	-$241.9M	—	—

3. EFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $11.83 (+0.77% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EFC ranks #792 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EFC compare to IIPR and BXDC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), EFC carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.47B) and BXDC (Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EFC?

Per EFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411342), Ellington Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $150.8M in net income, and -$925.5M in free cash flow against $19.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EFC last traded at $11.83 (+0.77% on volume of 1,670,326 shares), positioning the stock -4.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.37) and -8.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.89). Across its 52-week range of $11.28 to $14.12, EFC sits at the 19.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($11.27 to $12.39).

EFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell EFC stock right now?

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 51/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 10x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is EFC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

EFC's 12-month base price target is $11.46 (range $8.94 to $14.83), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: EFC RQD Cockpit EFC 12M Forecast EFC Earnings & Move EFC Dividends & DRIP EFC Insiders & 13F EFC Whale Options EFC Profit Sankey EFC News & Why