Stock Ratings / Financials / FOR / earnings

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Forestar Group Inc (FOR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.9% Move

$25.03 -3.43% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.28B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FOR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $25.03 (-3.43% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #964 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOR compare to IIPR and EFC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.47B) and EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $1.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

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Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83 (-0.81%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FOR SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 24% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$25.65+0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$25.67+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$26.09-4.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$25.03-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOR currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.51) and Max Pain ($26.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FOR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.9% Swing Band

±$1.73 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FOR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 42/100

Trailing EPS: $3.29 • YoY Revenue Growth: 10.1%

Model Bullish Setup (42/100)Model Risk Weight (58/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$1.66B	$167.9M	-$199.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$1.51B	$203.4M	-$160.6M	52%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$1.44B	$166.9M	$364.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOR)

✓Walkthrough of FOR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FOR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.43%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $24.99H $25.23L $23.82C $25.03VOL 348.7K

RES: $26.26SUP: $24.84SMA50: $26.51SMA200: $27.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOR Butterfly Map → + Track FOR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOR)

Financials Rank #964 of 1096 ⚔️ IIPR vs FOR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FOR vs. IIPR, EFC, MMI, BXDC)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forestar Group Inc (FOR) ranks #964 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #514 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FOR at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FOR ACTIVE Forestar Group Inc	D-	42/100	7.6x	—	9.4%	-3.43%	$1.28B	Benchmark Subject
IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.	C	65/100	12.5x	—	5.4%	+1.14%	$1.47B	/iipr-vs-for →
EFC Ellington Financial Inc.	D	51/100	10.1x	—	8.2%	+0.77%	$1.52B	/efc-vs-for →
MMI Marcus & Millichap Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-1.8%	+0.65%	$1.06B	/mmi-vs-for →
BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	—	+0.37%	$1.63B	/bxdc-vs-for →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001406587

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.51B , and +15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $167.9M, operating cash flow of -$197.7M, and free cash flow of -$199.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOR closed FY2025 with $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.66B	$167.9M	-$197.7M	-$199.9M	$3.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.51B	$203.4M	-$158.4M	-$160.6M	$2.96B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.44B	$166.9M	$364.1M	$364.1M	—	—

3. FOR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FOR compare to IIPR and EFC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

Where is FOR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOR last traded at $25.03 (-3.43% on volume of 345,625 shares), positioning the stock -5.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.51) and -8.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.42). Across its 52-week range of $22.81 to $32.06, FOR sits at the 24.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($23.30 to $26.76).

FOR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is FOR's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Forestar Group Inc (FOR)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is FOR stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.9% event move for FOR, spanning a range between $23.3 and $26.76.

Direct Sub-Reports: FOR RQD Cockpit FOR 12M Forecast FOR Earnings & Move FOR Dividends & DRIP FOR Insiders & 13F FOR Whale Options FOR Profit Sankey FOR News & Why