MARKET WIREYahoo • 1d ago
What Sent Honeywell Aerospace Stock Lower?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Why FLY Stock advanced +0.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$19.87 +0.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $3.33B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FLY Stock advanced +0.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) advanced +0.10% to $19.87, trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($15.99 – $62.17). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($15.99 – $62.17) with RSI-14 at 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $19.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 19.2% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FLY Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Why Did Firefly Aerospace Stock Just Crash?Firefly stock is down today -- but could soon fly right back up.
CATALYSTYahoo • 2d ago
Firefly Aerospace Landed on the Moon, Won a Pentagon Contract, and Partnered With Lockheed Martin. So Why Is the Stock Down 70%?Substantial progress for Firefly's business hasn't been enough to support gains for its stock.
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MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Is Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Too Rich for Its Sales Story?Firefly Aerospace has had a choppy run on the market over the past year, and the question for investors now is whether the current US$19.87 share price lines up with what its sales can reasonably support. With the stock
RISK WATCHYahoo • 3d ago
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Lands FORGE Milestone With Sensor Data Now In Live UseFirefly Aerospace (NasdaqGM:FLY) subsidiary SciTec has integrated advanced sensor data into the U.S. Space Force FORGE missile warning system. The integration marks an operational milestone for SciTec within the FORGE pr
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
What Is Behind The Move In Honeywell Aerospace Stock?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
Firefly Aerospace Is 75% Below Its High. Here's Why the Company That Landed on the Moon Is My Favorite Space Stock Under $20.A 75% decline could offer investors a compelling entry point.
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Does Karman Stock's Valuation Make Sense?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FLY)
- ✓Walkthrough of FLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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FLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $18.73H $19.87L $17.55C $19.87VOL 2.92M
RES: $23.32SUP: $14.44SMA50: $20.87SMA200: $27.20
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +163.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FLY today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FLY)
Industrials Rank #464 of 485
⚔️ ATRO vs FLY Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FLY vs. ATRO, DCO, KBR, RDW)
Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) ranks #464 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #178 by equity capitalization ($3.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBR leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while KBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. KBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FLY at 28/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLY
ACTIVE
Firefly Aerospace Inc. | E | 28/100 | — | 19.2% | -35.0% | +0.10% | $3.33B | Benchmark Subject |
| ATRO Astronics Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 92.1x | 29.9% | 13.2% | +3.85% | $2.70B | /atro-vs-fly → |
| DCO Ducommun Incorporated | D | 46/100 | — | 26.9% | -3.1% | +2.61% | $2.54B | /dco-vs-fly → |
| KBR KBR Inc. | C | 65/100 | 11.6x | 14.8% | 17.3% | -4.53% | $4.83B | /kbr-vs-fly → |
| RDW Redwire Corporation | E | 32/100 | — | 5.2% | -17.4% | +1.67% | $2.29B | /rdw-vs-fly → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001860160In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) reported GAAP revenue of $159.9M (+163.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $60.8M , and +189.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$298.3M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$237.8M (-24.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, FLY closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.47, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $159.9M | -$298.3M | -$204.9M | -$237.8M | $1.82B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $60.8M | -$231.1M | -$157.7M | -$190.3M | $407.3M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $55.2M | -$135.5M | -$93.4M | -$93.4M | — | — |
3. FLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $19.87 (+0.10% 1D, market cap $3.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FLY ranks #464 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FLY compare to ATRO and DCO in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), FLY carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATRO (Astronics Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 92.1x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $2.70B) and DCO (Ducommun Incorporated) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.1%, cap $2.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FLY?
Per FLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001860160), Firefly Aerospace Inc. generated $159.9M in revenue (+163.0% YoY), -$298.3M in net income, and -$237.8M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FLY last traded at $19.87 (+0.10% on volume of 2,001,758 shares), positioning the stock -4.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.87) and -26.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.20). Across its 52-week range of $15.99 to $62.17, FLY sits at the 8.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($17.39 to $22.35).
FLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FLY stock moving today?
Why FLY Stock advanced +0.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.