Stock Ratings / Industrials / FLY / financials

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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.87 +0.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.84

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.84 (-0.17%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FLY SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 19.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$20.00-16.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$16.75+8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$18.23+9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$19.87-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FLY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FLY currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.87) and Max Pain ($20.86) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $65.28.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FLY Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $55.2M

FY24

Rev $60.8M

FY25

Rev $159.9M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$159.9M	19.2%	-80%	-$298.3M	-$237.8M	-45%
FY 2024	$60.8M	-18.7%	-80%	-$231.1M	-$190.3M	-45%
FY 2023	$55.2M	19.2%	-80%	-$135.5M	-$93.4M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FLY)

✓Walkthrough of FLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $18.73H $19.87L $17.55C $19.87VOL 2.92M

RES: $23.32SUP: $14.44SMA50: $20.87SMA200: $27.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FLY Butterfly Map → + Track FLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +163.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FLY)

Industrials Rank #464 of 485 ⚔️ ATRO vs FLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FLY vs. ATRO, DCO, KBR, RDW)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) ranks #464 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #178 by equity capitalization ($3.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBR leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while KBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. KBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FLY at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FLY ACTIVE Firefly Aerospace Inc.	E	28/100	—	19.2%	-35.0%	+0.10%	$3.33B	Benchmark Subject
ATRO Astronics Corporation	C-	59/100	92.1x	29.9%	13.2%	+3.85%	$2.70B	/atro-vs-fly →
DCO Ducommun Incorporated	D	46/100	—	26.9%	-3.1%	+2.61%	$2.54B	/dco-vs-fly →
KBR KBR Inc.	C	65/100	11.6x	14.8%	17.3%	-4.53%	$4.83B	/kbr-vs-fly →
RDW Redwire Corporation	E	32/100	—	5.2%	-17.4%	+1.67%	$2.29B	/rdw-vs-fly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001860160

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) reported GAAP revenue of $159.9M (+163.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $60.8M , and +189.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$298.3M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$237.8M (-24.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, FLY closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.47, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$159.9M	-$298.3M	-$204.9M	-$237.8M	$1.82B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$60.8M	-$231.1M	-$157.7M	-$190.3M	$407.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$55.2M	-$135.5M	-$93.4M	-$93.4M	—	—

3. FLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $19.87 (+0.10% 1D, market cap $3.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FLY ranks #464 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FLY compare to ATRO and DCO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), FLY carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATRO (Astronics Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 92.1x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $2.70B) and DCO (Ducommun Incorporated) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.1%, cap $2.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FLY?

Per FLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001860160), Firefly Aerospace Inc. generated $159.9M in revenue (+163.0% YoY), -$298.3M in net income, and -$237.8M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FLY last traded at $19.87 (+0.10% on volume of 2,001,758 shares), positioning the stock -4.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.87) and -26.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.20). Across its 52-week range of $15.99 to $62.17, FLY sits at the 8.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($17.39 to $22.35).

FLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), FLY converted $159.9M of revenue into a 19.2% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: FLY RQD Cockpit FLY 12M Forecast FLY Earnings & Move FLY Dividends & DRIP FLY Insiders & 13F FLY Whale Options FLY Profit Sankey FLY News & Why