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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$19.87 +0.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

41.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.47>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE8% OF RANGE

L: $16$19.87H: $62

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FLY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 19.2% gross margin and -7.15% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (20)

Altman-Z 2.47 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (30)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FLY

✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FLY)

✓Walkthrough of FLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.57%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $18.73H $19.87L $17.55C $19.87VOL 2.92M

RES: $23.32SUP: $14.44SMA50: $20.87SMA200: $27.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FLY Butterfly Map → + Track FLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +163.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FLY)

Industrials Rank #464 of 485 ⚔️ ATRO vs FLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FLY vs. ATRO, DCO, KBR, RDW)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) ranks #464 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #178 by equity capitalization ($3.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBR leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while KBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. KBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with FLY at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FLY ACTIVE Firefly Aerospace Inc.	E	28/100	—	19.2%	-35.0%	+0.10%	$3.33B	Benchmark Subject
ATRO Astronics Corporation	C-	59/100	92.1x	29.9%	13.2%	+3.85%	$2.70B	/atro-vs-fly →
DCO Ducommun Incorporated	D	46/100	—	26.9%	-3.1%	+2.61%	$2.54B	/dco-vs-fly →
KBR KBR Inc.	C	65/100	11.6x	14.8%	17.3%	-4.53%	$4.83B	/kbr-vs-fly →
RDW Redwire Corporation	E	32/100	—	5.2%	-17.4%	+1.67%	$2.29B	/rdw-vs-fly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001860160

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) reported GAAP revenue of $159.9M (+163.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $60.8M , and +189.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$298.3M, operating cash flow of -$204.9M, and free cash flow of -$237.8M (-24.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, FLY closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.47, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$159.9M	-$298.3M	-$204.9M	-$237.8M	$1.82B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$60.8M	-$231.1M	-$157.7M	-$190.3M	$407.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$55.2M	-$135.5M	-$93.4M	-$93.4M	—	—

3. FLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $19.87 (+0.10% 1D, market cap $3.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FLY ranks #464 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FLY compare to ATRO and DCO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), FLY carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 19.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATRO (Astronics Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 92.1x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $2.70B) and DCO (Ducommun Incorporated) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.1%, cap $2.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FLY?

Per FLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001860160), Firefly Aerospace Inc. generated $159.9M in revenue (+163.0% YoY), -$298.3M in net income, and -$237.8M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FLY last traded at $19.87 (+0.10% on volume of 2,001,758 shares), positioning the stock -4.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.87) and -26.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.20). Across its 52-week range of $15.99 to $62.17, FLY sits at the 8.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($17.39 to $22.35).

FLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FLY stock right now?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 28/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is FLY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FLY's 12-month base price target is $17.19 (range $13.41 to $65.28), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FLY RQD Cockpit FLY 12M Forecast FLY Earnings & Move FLY Dividends & DRIP FLY Insiders & 13F FLY Whale Options FLY Profit Sankey FLY News & Why