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Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.70 -4.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67

Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $112.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Empire Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: EP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $2.70 (-4.59% 1D, market cap $112.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EP ranks #200 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EP compare to GLND and CRT in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EP carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GLND (Greenland Energy Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $144.7M) and CRT (Cross Timbers Royalty Trust) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $84.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EPM leads on earnings multiple (105.4x) while EPM leads on capital efficiency (5.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EP?

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Per EP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000887396), Empire Petroleum Corporation generated $34.2M in revenue (-21.6% YoY), -$72.1M in net income, and -$3.9M in free cash flow against $65.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67 (-1.02%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EP SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.25+4.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.39-9.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.07-12.1% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.70-10.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (35) → E (27)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EP currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.82) and Max Pain ($2.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (EP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for EP.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EP)

✓Walkthrough of EP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $2.83H $2.83L $2.70C $2.70VOL 19.3K

RES: $3.59SUP: $1.99SMA50: $2.82SMA200: $2.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EP Butterfly Map → + Track EP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EP)

Energy Rank #200 of 211 ⚔️ GLND vs EP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EP vs. GLND, CRT, BSIN, EPM)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) ranks #200 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #185 by equity capitalization ($112.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EPM leads on earnings valuation at 105.4x trailing P/E, while EPM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.2% ROIC and 42.5% gross margin. CRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with EP at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EP ACTIVE Empire Petroleum Corporation	E	27/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.59%	$112.3M	Benchmark Subject
GLND Greenland Energy Company	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+2.16%	$144.7M	/glnd-vs-ep →
CRT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust	C	63/100	—	—	—	+1.52%	$84.4M	/crt-vs-ep →
BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.64%	$81.9M	/bsin-vs-ep →
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.	D	51/100	105.4x	42.5%	5.2%	-1.80%	$155.3M	/epm-vs-ep →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000887396

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) reported GAAP revenue of $34.2M (-21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $43.6M , and -14.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$72.1M, operating cash flow of -$3.9M, and free cash flow of -$3.9M (-164.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, EP closed FY2025 with $65.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$34.2M	-$72.1M	-$3.9M	-$3.9M	$65.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$43.6M	-$16.2M	$6.2M	$6.2M	$123.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$40.1M	-$12.5M	-$9.9M	-$9.9M	—	—

3. EP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EP compare to GLND and CRT in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EP?

Where is EP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EP last traded at $2.70 (-4.59% on volume of 19,260 shares), positioning the stock -4.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.82) and -5.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.85). Across its 52-week range of $2.08 to $4.00, EP sits at the 32.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.36 to $3.04).

EP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is EP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for EP.

Direct Sub-Reports: EP RQD Cockpit EP 12M Forecast EP Earnings & Move EP Dividends & DRIP EP Insiders & 13F EP Whale Options EP Profit Sankey EP News & Why