Stock Ratings / Energy / EP / financials

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Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.70 -4.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67

Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $112.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67 (-1.02%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EP SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.15+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.22-4.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.07-12.1% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.70-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EP currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.83) and Max Pain ($2.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How EP Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $40.1M

FY24

Rev $43.6M

FY25

Rev $34.2M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$34.2M	52%	-80%	-$72.1M	-$3.9M	-45%
FY 2024	$43.6M	52%	-31.3%	-$16.2M	$6.2M	-17.8%
FY 2023	$40.1M	52%	-29%	-$12.5M	-$9.9M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EP)

✓Walkthrough of EP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.62H $2.70L $2.62C $2.70VOL 8.0K

RES: $3.58SUP: $2.00SMA50: $2.83SMA200: $2.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EP Butterfly Map → + Track EP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EP)

Energy Rank #206 of 211 ⚔️ GLND vs EP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EP vs. GLND, CRT, BSIN, EPM)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) ranks #206 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #185 by equity capitalization ($112.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EPM leads on earnings valuation at 105.4x trailing P/E, while EPM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.2% ROIC and 42.5% gross margin. CRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with EP at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EP ACTIVE Empire Petroleum Corporation	E	28/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.59%	$112.3M	Benchmark Subject
GLND Greenland Energy Company	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+2.16%	$144.7M	/glnd-vs-ep →
CRT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+1.52%	$84.4M	/crt-vs-ep →
BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.64%	$81.9M	/bsin-vs-ep →
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc.	D	48/100	105.4x	42.5%	5.2%	-1.80%	$155.3M	/epm-vs-ep →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000887396

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) reported GAAP revenue of $34.2M (-21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $43.6M , and -14.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$72.1M, operating cash flow of -$3.9M, and free cash flow of -$3.9M (-164.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, EP closed FY2025 with $65.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$34.2M	-$72.1M	-$3.9M	-$3.9M	$65.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$43.6M	-$16.2M	$6.2M	$6.2M	$123.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$40.1M	-$12.5M	-$9.9M	-$9.9M	—	—

3. EP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Empire Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: EP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.70 (-4.59% 1D, market cap $112.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EP ranks #206 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EP compare to GLND and CRT in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GLND (Greenland Energy Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $144.7M) and CRT (Cross Timbers Royalty Trust) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $84.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EPM leads on earnings multiple (105.4x) while EPM leads on capital efficiency (5.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EP?

Per EP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000887396), Empire Petroleum Corporation generated $34.2M in revenue (-21.6% YoY), -$72.1M in net income, and -$3.9M in free cash flow against $65.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EP last traded at $2.70 (-4.59% on volume of 19,260 shares), positioning the stock -4.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.83) and -5.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.85). Across its 52-week range of $2.08 to $4.00, EP sits at the 32.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.36 to $3.04).

EP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), EP converted $34.2M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: EP RQD Cockpit EP 12M Forecast EP Earnings & Move EP Dividends & DRIP EP Insiders & 13F EP Whale Options EP Profit Sankey EP News & Why