MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why EP Stock dropped -4.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.70 -4.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67
Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $112.3M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.67 (-1.02%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EP SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$3.15+2.2% Next Q
36
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$3.22-4.7% Next Q
33
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$3.07-12.1% Next Q
31
CurrentGrade E$2.70-10% Hist 90D α
28
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EP Turnaround Squeeze
While EP currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.83) and Max Pain ($2.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.20.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why EP Stock dropped -4.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) dropped -4.59% to $2.70, trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($2.08 – $4). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($2.08 – $4) with RSI-14 at 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.70 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live EP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 5h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EP)
- ✓Walkthrough of EP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $2.62H $2.70L $2.62C $2.70VOL 8.0K
RES: $3.58SUP: $2.00SMA50: $2.83SMA200: $2.85
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
EP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EP)
Energy Rank #206 of 211
⚔️ GLND vs EP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EP vs. GLND, CRT, BSIN, EPM)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) ranks #206 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #185 by equity capitalization ($112.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EPM leads on earnings valuation at 105.4x trailing P/E, while EPM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.2% ROIC and 42.5% gross margin. CRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with EP at 28/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP
ACTIVE
Empire Petroleum Corporation | E | 28/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.59% | $112.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| GLND Greenland Energy Company | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | +2.16% | $144.7M | /glnd-vs-ep → |
| CRT Cross Timbers Royalty Trust | C- | 60/100 | — | — | — | +1.52% | $84.4M | /crt-vs-ep → |
| BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc. | E | 24/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.64% | $81.9M | /bsin-vs-ep → |
| EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. | D | 48/100 | 105.4x | 42.5% | 5.2% | -1.80% | $155.3M | /epm-vs-ep → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000887396In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) reported GAAP revenue of $34.2M (-21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $43.6M , and -14.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$72.1M, operating cash flow of -$3.9M, and free cash flow of -$3.9M (-164.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, EP closed FY2025 with $65.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $34.2M | -$72.1M | -$3.9M | -$3.9M | $65.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $43.6M | -$16.2M | $6.2M | $6.2M | $123.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $40.1M | -$12.5M | -$9.9M | -$9.9M | — | — |
3. EP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs EP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Empire Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: EP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.70 (-4.59% 1D, market cap $112.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EP ranks #206 in composite RQD confidence.
How does EP compare to GLND and CRT in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EP carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GLND (Greenland Energy Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $144.7M) and CRT (Cross Timbers Royalty Trust) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $84.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EPM leads on earnings multiple (105.4x) while EPM leads on capital efficiency (5.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EP?
Per EP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000887396), Empire Petroleum Corporation generated $34.2M in revenue (-21.6% YoY), -$72.1M in net income, and -$3.9M in free cash flow against $65.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is EP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
EP last traded at $2.70 (-4.59% on volume of 19,260 shares), positioning the stock -4.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.83) and -5.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.85). Across its 52-week range of $2.08 to $4.00, EP sits at the 32.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.36 to $3.04).
EP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is EP stock moving today?
Why EP Stock dropped -4.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.