Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CTRN / forecast

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Citi Trends Inc. (CTRN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$48.54 +6.94% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.05

Citi Trends Inc. (CTRN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $404.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.05 (+1.06%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTRN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTRN SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.34 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.6% FCF Margin ($21.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$51.55-5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$48.70-6.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$45.41+6.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$48.54+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTRN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, CTRN faces multiple-compression risk if 77.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 78x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($55.74) or 200D SMA ($52.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($49.63) toward Bear Floor ($38.71).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTRN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTRN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CTRN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $48.54: 206.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $38.71

$7,975

$-2,025 (-20.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $49.63

$10,225

+$225 (+2.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $81.81

$16,854

+$6,854 (+68.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$52	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$77	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$44	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CTRN Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CTRN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.35%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $48.51H $49.56L $47.28C $48.54VOL 175.6K

SUP: $43.62SMA50: $55.74SMA200: $52.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTRN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTRN Butterfly Map → + Track CTRN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTRN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTRN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTRN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTRN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #333 of 1011 ⚔️ GCO vs CTRN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTRN vs. GCO, SHOE, DBI, LE)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Citi Trends Inc. (CTRN) ranks #333 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #612 by equity capitalization ($404.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SHOE leads on earnings valuation at 7.8x trailing P/E, while DBI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.4% ROIC and 43.6% gross margin. LE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with CTRN at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTRN ACTIVE Citi Trends Inc.	C	63/100	77.8x	—	2.6%	+6.94%	$404.8M	Benchmark Subject
GCO Genesco Inc.	D+	56/100	31.4x	46.3%	2.9%	+1.92%	$408.6M	/gco-vs-ctrn →
SHOE Shoe Station Group Inc.	C	65/100	7.8x	36.6%	9.2%	+4.29%	$409.7M	/shoe-vs-ctrn →
DBI Designer Brands Inc. (Class A)	C	62/100	—	43.6%	16.4%	+7.09%	$347.6M	/dbi-vs-ctrn →
LE Lands' End Inc.	C+	68/100	52.6x	48.7%	7.9%	+4.03%	$289.5M	/le-vs-ctrn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001318484

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Citi Trends Inc. (CTRN) reported GAAP revenue of $820.0M (+8.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $753.1M , and +9.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.2M, operating cash flow of $21.0M, and free cash flow of $21.0M (+644.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTRN closed FY2025 with $471.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.34, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$820.0M	$5.2M	$21.0M	$21.0M	$471.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$753.1M	-$43.2M	-$3.8M	-$3.8M	$462.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$747.9M	-$12.0M	-$9.6M	-$9.6M	—	—

3. CTRN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Citi Trends Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $48.54 (+6.94% 1D, market cap $404.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTRN ranks #333 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTRN compare to GCO and SHOE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), CTRN carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 77.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, GCO (Genesco Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 31.4x, ROIC 2.9%, cap $408.6M) and SHOE (Shoe Station Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 7.8x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $409.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SHOE leads on earnings multiple (7.8x) while DBI leads on capital efficiency (16.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTRN?

Per CTRN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001318484), Citi Trends Inc. generated $820.0M in revenue (+8.9% YoY), $5.2M in net income, and $21.0M in free cash flow against $471.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTRN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTRN last traded at $48.54 (+6.94% on volume of 311,444 shares), positioning the stock -12.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($55.74) and -7.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($52.53). Across its 52-week range of $35.00 to $77.91, CTRN sits at the 31.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($43.69 to $53.39).

CTRN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CTRN's 12-month stock price target?

Citi Trends Inc. (CTRN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $49.63 (+2.2% from $48.54), with a bull-case target of $81.81 and a bear-case floor of $38.71.