Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CTOS / options

VVX (63) MGRC (65) ABM (55) ARLO (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$10.92 +1.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93

Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.48B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 21.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTOS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTOS SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($310.1M FCF) & 28.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 11 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$9.25-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$9.08-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.06+20.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$10.92+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTOS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, CTOS faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.41) or 200D SMA ($8.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.07) toward Bear Floor ($8.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTOS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTOS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±11.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CTOS)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CTOS.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CTOS & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CTOS
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CTOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $10.55H $10.92L $10.31C $10.92VOL 1.10M

RES: $12.23SUP: $7.97SMA50: $9.41SMA200: $8.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTOS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTOS Butterfly Map → + Track CTOS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

31.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTOS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTOS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTOS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTOS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #381 of 1011 ⚔️ VVX vs CTOS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTOS vs. VVX, MGRC, ABM, ARLO)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) ranks #381 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #388 by equity capitalization ($2.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGRC leads on earnings valuation at 18.6x trailing P/E, while MGRC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.6% ROIC and 48.2% gross margin. ARLO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with CTOS at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTOS ACTIVE Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	Benchmark Subject
VVX V2X Inc.	C	63/100	32.4x	8.3%	7.1%	+4.02%	$2.52B	/vvx-vs-ctos →
MGRC McGrath RentCorp	C	65/100	18.6x	48.2%	15.6%	+0.69%	$2.91B	/mgrc-vs-ctos →
ABM ABM Industries Incorporated	D+	55/100	19.5x	12.3%	7.6%	+1.18%	$3.16B	/abm-vs-ctos →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-ctos →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001709682

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.36B , and +8.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.1M, operating cash flow of $310.1M, and free cash flow of $310.1M (+154.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTOS closed FY2025 with $3.44B in total assets against $1.62B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.45B	-$31.1M	$310.1M	$310.1M	$3.44B	$1.62B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.36B	-$28.7M	$122.0M	$122.0M	$3.50B	$1.52B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.33B	$50.7M	-$30.9M	-$30.9M	—	—

3. CTOS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Custom Truck One Source Inc. (NYSE: CTOS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $10.92 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $2.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTOS ranks #381 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTOS compare to VVX and MGRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), CTOS carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 28.5%, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, VVX (V2X Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 32.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.52B) and MGRC (McGrath RentCorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 15.6%, cap $2.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGRC leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while MGRC leads on capital efficiency (15.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTOS?

Per CTOS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709682), Custom Truck One Source Inc. generated $1.45B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $310.1M in free cash flow against $3.44B in total assets and $1.62B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTOS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTOS last traded at $10.92 (+1.39% on volume of 1,463,316 shares), positioning the stock +16.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.41) and +23.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.87). Across its 52-week range of $5.18 to $12.23, CTOS sits at the 81.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($9.66 to $12.18).

CTOS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CTOS's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CTOS.

Direct Sub-Reports: CTOS RQD Cockpit CTOS 12M Forecast CTOS Earnings & Move CTOS Dividends & DRIP CTOS Insiders & 13F CTOS Whale Options CTOS Profit Sankey CTOS News & Why