Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CTOS / forecast

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Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$10.92 +1.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93

Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.48B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CTOS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Custom Truck One Source Inc. (NYSE: CTOS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $10.92 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $2.48B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTOS ranks #381 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTOS compare to VVX and MGRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), CTOS carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 28.5%, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, VVX (V2X Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 32.4x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $2.52B) and MGRC (McGrath RentCorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 15.6%, cap $2.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGRC leads on earnings multiple (18.6x) while MGRC leads on capital efficiency (15.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTOS?

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Per CTOS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709682), Custom Truck One Source Inc. generated $1.45B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), -$31.1M in net income, and $310.1M in free cash flow against $3.44B in total assets and $1.62B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 21.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTOS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CTOS SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($310.1M FCF) & 28.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 11 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$9.25-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$9.08-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.06+20.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$10.92+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTOS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, CTOS faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.41) or 200D SMA ($8.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.07) toward Bear Floor ($8.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTOS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CTOS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CTOS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.92: 915.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $8.63

$7,903

$-2,097 (-21.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.07

$10,137

+$137 (+1.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $13.06

$11,960

+$1,960 (+19.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$12	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$10	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CTOS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CTOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $10.55H $10.92L $10.31C $10.92VOL 1.10M

RES: $12.23SUP: $7.97SMA50: $9.41SMA200: $8.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTOS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTOS Butterfly Map → + Track CTOS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

31.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTOS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTOS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTOS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTOS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #381 of 1011 ⚔️ VVX vs CTOS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTOS vs. VVX, MGRC, ABM, ARLO)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) ranks #381 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #388 by equity capitalization ($2.48B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGRC leads on earnings valuation at 18.6x trailing P/E, while MGRC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.6% ROIC and 48.2% gross margin. ARLO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with CTOS at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CTOS ACTIVE Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	Benchmark Subject
VVX V2X Inc.	C	63/100	32.4x	8.3%	7.1%	+4.02%	$2.52B	/vvx-vs-ctos →
MGRC McGrath RentCorp	C	65/100	18.6x	48.2%	15.6%	+0.69%	$2.91B	/mgrc-vs-ctos →
ABM ABM Industries Incorporated	D+	55/100	19.5x	12.3%	7.6%	+1.18%	$3.16B	/abm-vs-ctos →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-ctos →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001709682

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.36B , and +8.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.1M, operating cash flow of $310.1M, and free cash flow of $310.1M (+154.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTOS closed FY2025 with $3.44B in total assets against $1.62B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.45B	-$31.1M	$310.1M	$310.1M	$3.44B	$1.62B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.36B	-$28.7M	$122.0M	$122.0M	$3.50B	$1.52B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.33B	$50.7M	-$30.9M	-$30.9M	—	—

3. CTOS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CTOS compare to VVX and MGRC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTOS?

Where is CTOS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTOS last traded at $10.92 (+1.39% on volume of 1,463,316 shares), positioning the stock +16.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.41) and +23.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.87). Across its 52-week range of $5.18 to $12.23, CTOS sits at the 81.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($9.66 to $12.18).

CTOS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CTOS's 12-month stock price target?

Custom Truck One Source Inc. (CTOS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.07 (+1.4% from $10.92), with a bull-case target of $13.06 and a bear-case floor of $8.63.

Is CTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CTOS C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CTOS RQD Cockpit CTOS 12M Forecast CTOS Earnings & Move CTOS Dividends & DRIP CTOS Insiders & 13F CTOS Whale Options CTOS Profit Sankey CTOS News & Why