Stock Ratings / Industrials / CSTM / financials

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Constellium SE (France) (CSTM) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$24.02 -1.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.01

Constellium SE (France) (CSTM) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 29% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $3.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.01 (-0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CSTM SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.9% FCF Margin ($159.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$25.81-1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$25.47-8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$23.22+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$24.02+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSTM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, CSTM faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.56) or 200D SMA ($27.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.32) toward Bear Floor ($19.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CSTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CSTM Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$159.0M (1.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $7.83B

FY24

Rev $7.33B

FY25

Rev $8.45B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$8.45B	52%	0%	$273.0M	$159.0M	28.7%
FY 2024	$7.33B	52%	0%	$56.0M	-$112.0M	28.7%
FY 2023	$7.83B	52%	0%	$152.0M	$432.0M	28.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CSTM)

✓Walkthrough of CSTM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CSTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.21%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $23.44H $24.02L $22.72C $24.02VOL 1.73M

RES: $25.31SUP: $22.33SMA50: $25.56SMA200: $27.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CSTM Butterfly Map → + Track CSTM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSTM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSTM)

Industrials Rank #63 of 485 ⚔️ CXT vs CSTM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CSTM vs. CXT, MWA, SMR, HLIO)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Constellium SE (France) (CSTM) ranks #63 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #181 by equity capitalization ($3.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while CSTM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.7% ROIC and — gross margin. MWA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with CSTM at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CSTM ACTIVE Constellium SE (France)	B-	70/100	11.8x	—	28.7%	-1.68%	$3.23B	Benchmark Subject
CXT Crane NXT Co.	B	74/100	23.9x	42.5%	19.1%	+3.31%	$3.47B	/cxt-vs-cstm →
MWA MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS	B+	76/100	18.6x	36.1%	14.0%	+2.94%	$3.56B	/mwa-vs-cstm →
SMR NuScale Power Corporation	E	26/100	—	36.3%	-35.0%	+4.41%	$2.54B	/smr-vs-cstm →
HLIO Helios Technologies Inc.	C-	60/100	46.5x	32.3%	4.7%	+0.90%	$2.25B	/hlio-vs-cstm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001563411

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Constellium SE (France) (CSTM) reported GAAP revenue of $8.45B (+15.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.33B , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $273.0M, operating cash flow of $489.0M, and free cash flow of $159.0M (+242.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSTM closed FY2025 with $5.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.45B	$273.0M	$489.0M	$159.0M	$5.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.33B	$56.0M	$301.0M	-$112.0M	$4.73B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$7.83B	$152.0M	$432.0M	$432.0M	—	—

3. CSTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Constellium SE (France) (NYSE: CSTM) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $24.02 (-1.68% 1D, market cap $3.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CSTM ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSTM compare to CXT and MWA in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), CSTM carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.7%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and MWA (MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $3.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while CSTM leads on capital efficiency (28.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTM?

Per CSTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001563411), Constellium SE (France) generated $8.45B in revenue (+15.2% YoY), $273.0M in net income, and $159.0M in free cash flow against $5.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSTM last traded at $24.02 (-1.68% on volume of 2,027,425 shares), positioning the stock -6.03% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.56) and -14.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.94). Across its 52-week range of $14.62 to $36.99, CSTM sits at the 42.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($22.19 to $25.85).

CSTM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Constellium SE (France) (CSTM)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CSTM converted $8.4B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $159.0M in free cash flow (1.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: CSTM RQD Cockpit CSTM 12M Forecast CSTM Earnings & Move CSTM Dividends & DRIP CSTM Insiders & 13F CSTM Whale Options CSTM Profit Sankey CSTM News & Why