CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Core Natural Resources: The Buyback Acceleration Is ComingSee why Core Natural Resources could gain from high coal prices, low costs, and buybacksâand what its $100 fair value means for investors now.
Why CNR Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$87.15 -1.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.76
Core Natural Resources Inc. (CNR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $4.33B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is CNR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Core Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CNR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $87.15 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $4.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, CNR ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does CNR compare to HCC and BTU in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), CNR carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, HCC (Warrior Met Coal Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 79.3x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.52B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNR?
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Per CNR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001710366), Core Natural Resources Inc. generated $4.16B in revenue (+92.4% YoY), -$153.2M in net income, and $21.2M in free cash flow against $6.13B in total assets and $317.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.77 (-0.44%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CNR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CNR SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($21.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 31% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$91.62-1.9% Next Q
45
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$89.90-1.6% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$88.47-1.5% Next Q
40
CurrentGrade D-$87.15-8.1% Hist 90D α
37
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CNR Turnaround Squeeze
While CNR currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($92.54) and Max Pain ($91.51) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $120.54.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CNR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CNR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CNR Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Core Natural Resources Inc. (CNR) slipped -1.41% to $87.15, trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($74.75 – $114.8). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($74.75 – $114.8) with RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.3% around $87.15 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $21.2M annual free cash flow.
Live CNR Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Analysts Estimate Core Natural Resources (CNR) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out forCore Natural Resources (CNR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
3 market-beating stocks to consider right nowThe best-performing stocks typically have robust sales growth, increasing margins, and rising returns on capital, and those that can maintain this trifecta year in and year out often become the legends of the investing w
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
CNR (CNR) vs. AMR and HCC: Can Buybacks and Free Cash Flow Unlock Hidden Value in an Overlooked Coal Leader?Is CNR a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Core Natural Resources, Inc. on One Idea Per Day’s Substack by Paul. The thesis was published on July 15th, when the stock was trading at $86.21, and CNR has
CATALYSTBenzinga • 6d ago
B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Core Natural Resources, Raises Price Target to $122B. Riley Securities analyst Nick Giles maintains Core Natural Resources (NYSE:CNR) with a Buy and raises the price target from $118 to $122.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Core Natural Resources to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 5Core Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CNR) will discuss its third quarter 2026 financial results on an investor conference call on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 13d ago
1 Energy Stock on Our Watchlist and 2 Facing HeadwindsWhether you see them or not, energy businesses play a crucial part in our daily activities, from powering our homes and businesses to powering our transportation and industries.But they are at the whim of volatile macroe
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CNR)
- ✓Walkthrough of CNR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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CNR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.15%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $88.40H $88.40L $87.15C $87.15VOL 402.9K
RES: $108.3SUP: $86.18SMA50: $92.54SMA200: $90.81
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CNR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +92.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CNR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CNR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CNR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CNR)
Energy Rank #180 of 211
⚔️ HCC vs CNR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (CNR vs. HCC, BTU, AMR, NRP)
Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Core Natural Resources Inc. (CNR) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #91 by equity capitalization ($4.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with CNR at 37/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNR
ACTIVE
Core Natural Resources Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -4.0% | -1.41% | $4.33B | Benchmark Subject |
| HCC Warrior Met Coal Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | 79.3x | 22.4% | 1.8% | +2.63% | $4.52B | /hcc-vs-cnr → |
| BTU Peabody Energy Corporation | E | 24/100 | — | — | -2.1% | -1.24% | $2.71B | /btu-vs-cnr → |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -4.1% | -0.89% | $2.05B | /amr-vs-cnr → |
| NRP Natural Resource Partners LP | B- | 70/100 | — | — | 18.4% | -0.88% | $1.54B | /nrp-vs-cnr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001710366In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Core Natural Resources Inc. (CNR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.16B (+92.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.16B , and +66.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$153.2M, operating cash flow of $305.8M, and free cash flow of $21.2M (-92.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CNR closed FY2025 with $6.13B in total assets against $317.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.93, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.16B | -$153.2M | $305.8M | $21.2M | $6.13B | $317.3M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.16B | $286.4M | $476.4M | $298.4M | $2.88B | $79.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.51B | $655.9M | $857.9M | $857.9M | — | — |
3. CNR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CNR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Core Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CNR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $87.15 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $4.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, CNR ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CNR compare to HCC and BTU in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), CNR carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, HCC (Warrior Met Coal Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 79.3x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.52B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CNR?
Per CNR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001710366), Core Natural Resources Inc. generated $4.16B in revenue (+92.4% YoY), -$153.2M in net income, and $21.2M in free cash flow against $6.13B in total assets and $317.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CNR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CNR last traded at $87.15 (-1.41% on volume of 402,906 shares), positioning the stock -5.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($92.54) and -4.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($90.81). Across its 52-week range of $74.75 to $114.80, CNR sits at the 31.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($80.79 to $93.51).
CNR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CNR stock moving today?
Why CNR Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.