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Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$161.81 -0.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $161.24

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.05B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $161.24 (-0.35%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMR SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.8% FCF Margin ($144.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$181.57-8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$166.73-1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$163.60-1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$161.81-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMR currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($187.56) and Max Pain ($169.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $266.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

40.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.18>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE23% OF RANGE

L: $134$161.81H: $254

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AMR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

-4.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.06% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.18 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AMR

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMR)

✓Walkthrough of AMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.22%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $158.4H $161.8L $156.3C $161.8VOL 180.4K

RES: $255.6SUP: $154.7SMA50: $187.6SMA200: $185.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMR Butterfly Map → + Track AMR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -28.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMR)

Energy Rank #146 of 211 ⚔️ BTU vs AMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AMR vs. BTU, NRP, CNR, HCC)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) ranks #146 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #119 by equity capitalization ($2.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AMR at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMR ACTIVE Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-4.1%	-0.89%	$2.05B	Benchmark Subject
BTU Peabody Energy Corporation	D-	36/100	—	—	-2.1%	-1.24%	$2.71B	/btu-vs-amr →
NRP Natural Resource Partners LP	C+	69/100	—	—	18.4%	-0.88%	$1.54B	/nrp-vs-amr →
CNR Core Natural Resources Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-4.0%	-1.41%	$4.33B	/cnr-vs-amr →
HCC Warrior Met Coal Inc.	D+	56/100	79.3x	22.4%	1.8%	+2.63%	$4.52B	/hcc-vs-amr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001704715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.12B (-28.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.95B , and -38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$61.7M, operating cash flow of $144.9M, and free cash flow of $144.9M (-75.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMR closed FY2025 with $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.12B	-$61.7M	$144.9M	$144.9M	$2.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.95B	$187.6M	$579.9M	$579.9M	$2.44B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.46B	$722.0M	$851.2M	$851.2M	—	—

3. AMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $161.81 (-0.89% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #146 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMR compare to BTU and NRP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B) and NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?

Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMR last traded at $161.81 (-0.89% on volume of 234,329 shares), positioning the stock -13.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($187.56) and -12.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($185.02). Across its 52-week range of $133.64 to $253.82, AMR sits at the 23.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($144.33 to $179.29).

AMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AMR stock right now?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AMR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMR's 12-month base price target is $155.98 (range $121.66 to $266.51), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMR RQD Cockpit AMR 12M Forecast AMR Earnings & Move AMR Dividends & DRIP AMR Insiders & 13F AMR Whale Options AMR Profit Sankey AMR News & Why