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Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$161.81 -0.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $161.24

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.05B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $161.24 (-0.35%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMR SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.8% FCF Margin ($144.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$181.57-8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$166.73-1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$163.60-1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$161.81-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMR currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($187.56) and Max Pain ($169.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $266.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±10.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AMR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AMR.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMR)

✓Walkthrough of AMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.22%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $158.4H $161.8L $156.3C $161.8VOL 180.4K

RES: $255.6SUP: $154.7SMA50: $187.6SMA200: $185.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMR Butterfly Map → + Track AMR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -28.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMR)

Energy Rank #146 of 211 ⚔️ BTU vs AMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AMR vs. BTU, NRP, CNR, HCC)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) ranks #146 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #119 by equity capitalization ($2.05B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AMR at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMR ACTIVE Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-4.1%	-0.89%	$2.05B	Benchmark Subject
BTU Peabody Energy Corporation	D-	36/100	—	—	-2.1%	-1.24%	$2.71B	/btu-vs-amr →
NRP Natural Resource Partners LP	C+	69/100	—	—	18.4%	-0.88%	$1.54B	/nrp-vs-amr →
CNR Core Natural Resources Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-4.0%	-1.41%	$4.33B	/cnr-vs-amr →
HCC Warrior Met Coal Inc.	D+	56/100	79.3x	22.4%	1.8%	+2.63%	$4.52B	/hcc-vs-amr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001704715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) reported GAAP revenue of $2.12B (-28.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.95B , and -38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$61.7M, operating cash flow of $144.9M, and free cash flow of $144.9M (-75.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMR closed FY2025 with $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.12B	-$61.7M	$144.9M	$144.9M	$2.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.95B	$187.6M	$579.9M	$579.9M	$2.44B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.46B	$722.0M	$851.2M	$851.2M	—	—

3. AMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $161.81 (-0.89% 1D, market cap $2.05B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AMR ranks #146 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMR compare to BTU and NRP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), AMR carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.1%. By comparison, BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.71B) and NRP (Natural Resource Partners LP) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 18.4%, cap $1.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMR?

Per AMR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001704715), Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. generated $2.12B in revenue (-28.0% YoY), -$61.7M in net income, and $144.9M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMR last traded at $161.81 (-0.89% on volume of 234,329 shares), positioning the stock -13.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($187.56) and -12.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($185.02). Across its 52-week range of $133.64 to $253.82, AMR sits at the 23.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($144.33 to $179.29).

AMR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AMR's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AMR.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMR RQD Cockpit AMR 12M Forecast AMR Earnings & Move AMR Dividends & DRIP AMR Insiders & 13F AMR Whale Options AMR Profit Sankey AMR News & Why