MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why BSRR Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$42.43 +0.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.37
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $550.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.37 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BSRR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BSRR SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 90% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$38.91+1.7% Next Q
57
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$39.59+5.4% Next Q
60
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$41.74+1.7% Next Q
62
CurrentGrade C$42.43+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BSRR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, BSRR faces multiple-compression risk if 13.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.15) or 200D SMA ($38.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.77) toward Bear Floor ($34.14).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BSRR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BSRR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BSRR Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) advanced +0.21% to $42.43, trading at 90% of its 52-week range ($27.93 – $44). Solid steady margins (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 90% of its 52-week range ($27.93 – $44) with RSI-14 at 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6% around $42.43 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $32.2M annual free cash flow.
Live BSRR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 5h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 7h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 9h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BSRR Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
BSRR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $42.42H $42.84L $41.80C $42.43VOL 69.4K
RES: $44.15SUP: $37.77SMA50: $40.15SMA200: $38.25
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BSRR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
4.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BSRR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BSRR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BSRR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BSRR)
Financials Rank #328 of 1096
⚔️ BWFG vs BSRR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BSRR vs. BWFG, NPB, BSVN, BWB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) ranks #328 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #683 by equity capitalization ($550.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with BSRR at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSRR
ACTIVE
Sierra Bancorp | C | 65/100 | 13.0x | — | 11.6% | +0.21% | $550.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| BWFG Bankwell Financial Group Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 15.8x | — | 11.7% | +4.13% | $555.2M | /bwfg-vs-bsrr → |
| NPB Northpointe Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 6.7x | — | 14.7% | -0.06% | $559.5M | /npb-vs-bsrr → |
| BSVN Bank7 Corp. | B- | 70/100 | 13.1x | — | 17.2% | +0.46% | $564.9M | /bsvn-vs-bsrr → |
| BWB Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 12.3x | — | 8.9% | -0.24% | $567.2M | /bwb-vs-bsrr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001130144In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $42.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of $32.2M (-42.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BSRR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $49.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $42.3M | $33.7M | $32.2M | $3.83B | $49.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $40.6M | $57.2M | $56.0M | $3.61B | $49.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $34.8M | $53.2M | $53.2M | — | — |
3. BSRR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ: BSRR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $42.43 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $550.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BSRR ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BSRR compare to BWFG and NPB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BSRR carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $555.2M) and NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $559.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BSRR?
Per BSRR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001130144), Sierra Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $42.3M in net income, and $32.2M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $49.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BSRR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BSRR last traded at $42.43 (+0.21% on volume of 126,302 shares), positioning the stock +5.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.15) and +10.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.25). Across its 52-week range of $27.93 to $44.00, BSRR sits at the 90.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($39.88 to $44.98).
BSRR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BSRR stock moving today?
Why BSRR Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.